NZ Market Rises on Rate Relief Hopes and Broad-Based Gains

Index Update: On 4th May, the broader NZ market closed higher amidst broad-based buying in the materials sector, with S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessing a rise of 0.45% to end at 13,097.680. On the same day, S&P/NZX 20 Index and S&P/NZX 10 Index rose by 0.39% and 0.33%, respectively. S&P/NZX All Materials went up by 1.46% to close the session at 834.020. However, S&P/NZX All Consumer Staples fell by 6.35%.   

Macro Update: RBNZ, in the release dated 08 April 2026, stated that the Middle East conflict has disrupted global supply chains, driving a sharp increase in oil and refined petroleum product prices. The Monetary Policy Committee aims to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint over the medium term, which depends on keeping core inflation and wage growth in check, while ensuring medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain anchored around 2%.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Santana Minerals Limited (NZX: SMI) witnessed a rise of 6.57% to end at $0.73 per share. On the other hand, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) declined by 16.67%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar steadied in Asian trade, while regional currencies stayed range-bound amid Middle East tensions and U.S. rate uncertainty. Gold fell 0.47% to USD 4,622.96, silver declined 0.35% to USD 76.165, and copper fell 0.35% to USD 12,968.73. Brent crude rose 0.11% to USD 108.28, supported by supply risks despite higher Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries output.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

In the most recent session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index continued its recovery from the latest trough, gaining 58.48 points, or 0.45%, to finish at 13,097.68. The 14-period RSI has also moved above its midpoint, suggesting an improvement in short-term sentiment from bearish to bullish. However, from a technical perspective, the broader downtrend that began at the January 2026 peak of 13,757.71 remains in place, as the index is still trading below key resistance at the mid-March high of 13,339.06. Immediate support is seen at the previous low of 12,689; a clear break beneath this level would reinforce the continuation of the prevailing downtrend. Conversely, a sustained move above 13,339.06, accompanied by stronger volume, would be required to invalidate the bearish outlook and indicate a potential trend reversal.  

Our Stance: As of now, U.S. markets are trending upward, led by strong momentum in technology and AI-driven stocks, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs. Robust corporate earnings have supported investor sentiment, despite some sectoral divergence. Coming to NZ, the equities are showing modest upward momentum, with the NZX 50 gaining recently. Gains have been supported by strong corporate earnings and global market tailwinds, particularly from the U.S. Moving forward, gradual recovery is expected, but gains likely to remain moderate amid global and domestic headwinds.