Cautious Trading Sends NZ Markets Marginally Lower

index Update: New Zealand markets ended marginally lower on 28 May 2026 as cautious investor sentiment weighed on trading activity. Concerns around Inflation, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty over interest-rate expectations pressured risk appetite across the market. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 0.16% to end at 13,206.110, while S&P/NZX 20 Index fell 0.18% to 7,493.380. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index declined by 0.07%. S&P/NZX All Materials fell by 1.57%.   

Macro Update: The Treasury released Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2026. It was highlighted that NZ entered 2026 with signs of a broadening economic recovery. Export performance remained strong, international tourism continued to improve, labour market conditions showed early signs of stabilisation, and both household and Business confidence were strengthening. While the recovery momentum was still uneven across sectors, economic activity expanded by 1.1% during the second half of 2025 after relatively flat growth in the first half of the year. However, since late February, the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global oil and petroleum supplies, contributing to a sharp increase in fuel prices.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Promisia Healthcare Limited (NZX: PHL) witnessed a rise of 11.11% to end at $0.60 per share. On the other hand, Minerals Exploration Limited (NZX: MEX) declined by 10.53% to $0.085 per share.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held near a one-week high on Thursday after reports that the United States carried out fresh strikes on an Iranian military site, boosting safe-haven Demand. Gold dropped 1.25% to USD 4,425.55, while silver fell 2.17% to USD 73.25. Copper also declined 0.19% to USD 13,521.15. Meanwhile, Brent Crude oil surged 1.90% to USD 96.03 following the reported attack on Iran, although prices remained under pressure after reports suggested Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping within 30 days.  

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Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group 

In the latest Trading session, the S&P/NZX 50 opened with strong gains but reversed later in the day after testing its previous peak, slipping 21.71 points, or 0.16%, to close at 13,206.10. From a technical standpoint, although short-term sentiment has shifted from neutral to positive, the index failed to reclaim its prior high and formed a shooting star candlestick, suggesting persistent selling pressure and indicating that an uptrend has not yet been confirmed. 

However, the broader downtrend from the January 2026 peak of 13,757.71 remains in place, as the index continues to trade below the key resistance level at 13,282.97. Immediate support is located around 12,726.35, and a decisive break below this level would strengthen the case for continuation of the prevailing bearish trend. On the other hand, a sustained breakout above 13,282.97, supported by increased trading Volume, would be needed to negate the negative outlook and signal the potential for a broader trend Reversal.  

Our Stance: The US markets have been influenced by a mix of resilient economic activity, easing inflation expectations, and strong momentum in technology and AI-related stocks. Investor sentiment has remained cautiously optimistic as markets assess the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook and the pace of economic recovery. New Zealand markets have shown gradual recovery trends, supported by improving export performance, recovering tourism activity, and easing interest-rate pressures. However, market momentum has remained uneven due to inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, higher fuel prices, and cautious consumer spending patterns. Moving forward, global Volatility, energy-price pressures, and interest-rate expectations may continue to influence market direction in the near term.