NZ Market Ends Marginally Lower

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: On 25th June 2025, the broader NZ market ended marginally lower amidst selling in the financials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 0.05% to end at 12,460.960 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.12% to close at 7,306.590. Notably, S&P/NZX 10 Index fell by 0.19%. However, buying was encountered in the energy sector and S&P/NZX All Energy increased by 1.39% to close at 1,961.800.   

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about overseas merchandise trade (May 2025). In May 2025, goods exports witnessed an increase of $676 Mn (or 9.7%) to $7.7 Bn, and goods imports declined $499 Mn (or 7.2%) to $6.4 Bn. Therefore, the monthly trade balance was surplus of $1.2 Bn. With respect to exports, milk powder, butter, and cheese increased $332 Mn (or 18%) to $2.2 Bn. The fruit exports stood at $1.0 Bn in May 2025, reflecting a 25% increase (or $201 Mn) as compared with May 2024.  

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, TruScreen Group Limited (NZX: TRU) witnessed a rise of 5.00% to end at $0.021 per share. On the other hand, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) declined by 5.00% to $0.019 per share.  

Commodity Update: The dollar remained under pressure on Wednesday as investor sentiment improved amid hopes of a fragile truce between Israel and Iran, prompting a shift toward riskier assets. Gold rose 0.28% to $3,343.60, silver gained 0.38% to $35.86, and copper increased 0.28% to $9,704.30. Brent crude rebounded 1.1% to $67.89 after sharp recent losses, with markets weighing the ceasefire’s potential to stabilize geopolitical tensions.  

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

Following a sustained upward rally that began in October 2023, the S&P/NZX 50 index appears to be transitioning into a consolidation phase. This is evidenced by the formation of a lower high and a higher low on the chart - typically a technical signal that the market may be entering a trading range. Unless there is a clear breakout above the previous resistance level at 12,881 points or a breakdown below the earlier support level at 12,254 points, this sideways movement is expected to persist in the near term. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around its midpoint, which reinforces the previous outlook. As a result, investors may need to wait for a decisive move in either direction before gaining greater clarity on the market’s next trend.  

Our Stance: It could be said that selling in the financials sector somewhat impacted the broader NZ market on 25 June. While the broader US markets showed some optimism, the investors are required to be cautious when it comes to developments related to the geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the path to rate cuts by the US Fed should also be taken into consideration. The NZ markets are expected to be affected by the macro-economic data points. On June 30, Stats NZ would be releasing data about business count indicators (May 2025).