Why Did NZ Markets End Mixed on 26 June 2026?

Index Update: New Zealand markets finished mixed on 26 June 2026 as investors reacted to a combination of global and domestic signals. Offshore cues from US and Asian markets created uneven sentiment across risk assets. Interest rate expectations linked to the RBNZ outlook led to divergence between banking stocks and interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as property. Export-oriented companies also reacted to shifts in commodity trends and China demand expectations. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a marginal rise of 0.02%.     

Macro Update: As per FEU dated 11 June, in the update released in first week of June, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected that inflation across member countries would average 4.3% this year, rising from 4.0% last year, assuming any disruptions to oil supply remain temporary. It also noted that higher inflation is expected to weigh on real income growth, leading to a downward revision in global GDP growth forecasts from 3.4% to 2.8% for the year.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Trade Window Holdings Limited (NZX: TWL) witnessed a rise of  

5.88% to $0.18. Manuka Resources Limited (NZX: MKR) declined 6.25%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday and was on track to end its six-session winning streak after the latest U.S. inflation data came in line with market expectations, reducing concerns over additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Gold declined by 1.00% to USD 4,007.70, silver fell 3.72% to USD 56.20, and copper dropped 1.13% to USD 13,150.00. Brent crude oil eased 0.50% to USD 74.89 per barrel as improving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement weighed on prices despite renewed security concerns near Oman.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index ended the latest trading session little changed, edging up 2.19 points, or 0.02%, to close at 13,450.66 after rebounding from its near-term support level. As the benchmark continues to trade comfortably above this key support zone, the broader upward trend remains intact. 

From a medium-term technical standpoint, the outlook continues to strengthen. The index has confirmed a breakout above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, signalling improving market sentiment and increasing the likelihood of a sustained bullish reversal. Supporting this positive view, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above its midpoint and continues to trend higher, indicating strengthening buying momentum. As long as the benchmark holds above the confirmed breakout level of 13,324.82, the current recovery is expected to remain intact. A continuation of buying pressure could pave the way for a move towards the record high of 13,757.71, which stands as the next significant resistance level.  

Our Stance: US markets are currently being driven by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate policy, which is creating ongoing volatility. Technology and AI-related stocks continue to lead overall index performance, though gains are uneven across sectors. Investors are also rotating into defensive sectors amid concerns about economic slowdown and earning pressure. NZ markets are currently being shaped by shifting interest rate expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, influencing performance across banks, property, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Export-oriented companies remain tied to global demand trends, particularly from China and commodity price movements.