NZ Market Ends Lower Amidst Trade War Concerns

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: On 11th April 2025, the broader NZ market ended lower amidst increasing concerns about the trade war, which continues to impact the global and NZ markets. On the same day, significant selling was witnessed in the healthcare sector. Notably, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 1.49% to end the session at 12,019.130 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 1.47% to 7,144.200. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a decline of 1.74% to 11,856.200. S&P/NZX All Health Care witnessed a fall of 3.44% to 2,873.560.  

Macro Update: Recently, RBNZ stated that numerous factors resulting from tariff increases can put upward pressure on the global prices over the medium term. Also, the price would increase in tariff-imposing countries, implying the increased cost of imports. Increased trade protectionism as well as uncertainty would also lower the productive capacity of the broader global economy. The costs of trade can also witness an increase as global supply chains adapt to higher trade restrictions and geoeconomic fragmentation.  

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, Santana Minerals Limited (NZX: SMI) witnessed an increase of 8.16% to $0.53 per share. On the other hand, Metro Performance Glass Limited (NZX: MPG) declined by 10.00% to $0.054 per share. 

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday as declining confidence in the U.S. economy drove investors toward safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, yen, euro, and gold. Gold hit a record high, rising 1.92% to $3,238.40, while silver gained 1.37% to $31.18, and copper rose 0.49% to $8,949.20. Brent crude fell 0.50% to $63.02 amid concerns over the prolonged U.S.-China trade war impacting global demand. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

Following a break below the upward trendline that had held since November 2024 and showing signs of weakness, the S&P/NZX 50 index has continued to fall beneath a key support level — the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation — suggesting the potential for further downside. This bearish momentum may push the index toward a major support zone around 11,500 points. At present, the index is rebounding near this strong support area and showing early signs of stabilization, with a possible bullish divergence emerging on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in its oversold territory. This could signal a possible recovery in case the index manages to surpass its previous peak at 12,400 points.  

Our Stance: It could be said that the broader global and NZ markets are being significantly impacted by the developments related to the trade war. The Trump administration’s stance on tariffs continues to shift the global trade dynamics. While global investors continue to seek shelter from the escalating volatility, the markets might also get impacted by the macro-economic releases. On 16th April, data about the U.S. retail sales is expected to be released, which can influence the investors’ sentiments.