NZ Market Ends in Red: A Quick Look

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: On 3rd March 2025, the broader NZ market ended lower amidst decline in the financials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a fall of 0.41% to end at 12,550.050 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.52% to close at 7,516.760. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index fell by 0.79%. S&P/NZX All Financials encountered a decline of 2.39% to end the session at 1,417.360. However, S&P/NZX All Materials witnessed a rise of 1.01%.  

Macro Update: Export prices rose more than import prices in the December 2024 quarter, which resulted in a 3.1% growth in the terms of trade, as per Stats NZ. The total export price index witnessed a rise of 3.2% and the import price index increased 0.1% in the December 2024 quarter as compared with the September 2024 quarter. The export prices for meat products, that are NZ’s second largest export commodity by value, increased 6.8% in the December quarter. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, RTO Limited (NZX: RTO) witnessed a rise of 12.20% to end at $0.138 per share. On the other hand, The Warehouse Group Limited (NZX: WHS) declined by 8.08% to $0.910 per share. 

Commodity Update: The euro bounced back from a 2.5-week low against the U.S. dollar on Monday, with the British pound also gaining as Europe led efforts for peace in Ukraine. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso strengthened after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested tariffs may be less than the expected 25%. In commodities, gold rose 1.08% to $2,879.14, silver climbed 1.20% to $31.87, and copper gained 0.40% to $9,402.50. Brent crude oil increased by 1.10% to $73.57, fueled by uncertainty over a U.S.-brokered peace deal and bargain buying, though prices remained near their lowest of the year. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

In July 2024, the S&P/NZX 50 index broke above both the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily chart and a crucial resistance level set by its 2023 high. This breakout suggests that the uptrend, which began in November 2023, is likely to continue and may drive the index toward its 2021 historical peak. Despite the ongoing correction, the index is bouncing back above the key support level defined by the 2023 high and the pattern’s neckline, reinforcing expectations of a sustained uptrend. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reversing from its oversold territory, signaling a potential rebound in the near future.  

Our Stance: It could be said that decline in the financial sector impacted the broader NZ market on 3rd March 2025.While there are expectations that the broader US market will finish 2025 on a positive note, there are some uncertainties related to Trump’s tariffs and job markets which can impact the investors’ sentiments. Furthermore, uncertainties associated with trade policy can also impact the markets moving forward. Therefore, investors are required to take a cautious stance.