Index Update: On 9th December, the broader NZ market closed the trading session in red amidst selling in the materials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 0.23% to end at 13,454.780 and S&P/NZX 20 Index encountered a fall of 0.18% to 7,673.610. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index witnessed 0.17% decline. Notably, S&P/NZX All Materials fell by 3.83% to end at 1,055.510.     

Macro Update: As per the FEU dated 4 December 2025, the retail sales volumes were robust in the quarter ended September, increasing 1.9% seasonally adjusted as compared to the June quarter. Notably, this momentum was witnessed despite the relatively subdued growth in monthly card spending data as well as downbeat consumer sentiment throughout the quarter.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Sky Network Television Limited (NZX: SKT) witnessed an increase of 6.81% to end at $3.45 per share. On the other hand, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) declined by 10.71% to $0.025 per share.  

Commodity Update: The yen held firm in early Asian trade after a strong 7.5-magnitude quake hit northeast Japan, heightening risk-off sentiment ahead of key central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve. Gold edged up 0.09% to USD 4,221.25, silver rose 0.55% to USD 58.72, while copper slipped 0.27% to USD 11,593. Brent crude was marginally lower at USD 62.47 as markets watched Ukraine peace talks and an approaching U.S. rate decision. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index inched lower 31.54 points, or 0.23%, in the latest session, continuing its sideways movement between its record high and a key support zone near the 2024 peak. Despite a mild pullback, the index still trades comfortably above this important support, maintaining a constructive short-term outlook. As long as prices remain above this major support area, the broader uptrend that began in October 2023 remains intact. Initial support is at 13,270; holding above this level would sustain the bullish bias and leave room for another attempt at the all-time high. Conversely, a decisive break below 13,270 could signal a deeper correction, with downside risk toward the 13,000 region before the longer-term uptrend resumes.  

Our Stance: As of now, it could be said that the traders and investors are considering uncertainties about the US Fed’s decision on rate cuts while taking positions on stocks. Furthermore, there are some uncertainties in the broader global bond markets. Coming to NZ, the September quarter trade data exhibited that goods export volumes rose 3.4% in the quarter, after declining 3.1% in the quarter ended June. Notably, the export prices were down 1.6% compared to the June quarter, with declines throughout most categories.  

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