Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The broader NZ market closed lower as significant selling was witnessed in Financials sector, falling by 3.68%. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index declined by 2.33% to NZD 11,836.690 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 2.51% to NZD 7,020.390. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 2.69%. S&P/NZX All Communications Services declined by 3.12%. However, S&P/NZX All Materials witnessed a rise of 0.18% on the same day.  

Macro Update: In March 2025, New Zealand posted a NZD 970 million trade surplus, more than double the previous year's figure, driven by a 19% surge in exports—notably dairy, meat, fruit, and machinery—while imports rose 12%, led by petroleum, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Exports grew strongly to China, the US, and the EU, though exports to Australia dipped, and imports increased from most partners except South Korea.  

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels NZ Limited (NZX: MCK) witnessed a rise of 26.85% to $2.74 per share and TruScreen Group Limited (NZX: TRU) increased by 6.90% to $0.031 per share. On the other hand, Being AI Limited (NZX: BAI) declined by 9.09% to $0.20 per share.  

Commodity Update: The dollar hovered near a three-year low Tuesday after President Trump intensified criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a "major loser" and urging immediate rate cuts. Investor confidence in the U.S. economy wavered. Gold surged 1.69% to $3,483.25, silver edged up 0.18% to $32.57, and copper rose 0.51%. Brent crude gained 0.80% to $66.77 as traders covered short positions despite ongoing economic concerns. 

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Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group 

Following a break below the upward trendline that had held since November 2024 and showing signs of weakness, the S&P/NZX 50 index has continued to fall beneath a key support level — the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation — suggesting the potential for further downside. This bearish momentum may push the index toward a major support zone around 11,500 points. At present, the index is showing an early sign of stabilization with a possible bullish divergence emerging on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in its oversold territory. However, in order to signal a possible recovery, the index should manage to surpass its previous peak at 12,400 points. 

Our Stance: It could be cautiously bearish outlook on the NZ market, citing weakness in Financials and a key technical breakdown in the S&P/NZX 50 Index. While strong export-driven trade data and select stock gains offer support, a sustained recovery depends on a break above 12,400. Investors are advised to remain defensive and watch for clearer bullish signals.  

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