Image Souce: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: On 13th November 2024, the NZ market closed lower amidst decline in the healthcare sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a fall of 0.59% to end the session at 12,674.490 and S&P/NZX 20 Index declined by 0.51% to 7,648.220. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index fell by 0.69%. S&P/NZX All Health Care witnessed a decline of 1.49% to 3,276.120. However, S&P/NZX All Financials rose by 0.53%.  

Macro Update: New Zealand had a net migration gain of 44,900 in the September 2024 year, as per provisional estimates released by Stats NZ. According to the release, the annual net migration gains have continued falling from the provisional peak of 136,300 in the October 2023 year. Notably, the decline in net migration demonstrates that arrivals are down, and departures are up. There were 177,900 migrant arrivals in September 2024 year, which is still high considering the historical standards. This compared with a record 235,500 migrant arrivals in October 2023 year. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, EROAD Limited (NZX: ERD) witnessed a rise of 5.75% to end the session at $0.92 per share. On the other hand, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) fell by 8.70% to $0.021 per share. 

Commodity Update:  The U.S. dollar held near a 6-1/2-month high, while Bitcoin remained just below its record highs, as markets eyed upcoming U.S. inflation data. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, expected later, is forecast to show a 0.3% rise in core inflation, which could impact expectations for a December rate cut. Gold surged 0.44% to $2,617.45 per ounce, silver rose 1.11% to $31.11, and copper climbed 0.34% to $9,179.50 per ton. Brent crude slipped to $71.86 a barrel after OPEC revised its demand outlook lower, with broader concerns over the U.S. economy and Trump election speculation. 

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Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

In July 2024, the S&P/NZX 50 index surpassed both the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily chart and a key resistance level marked by its 2023 high. This breakout indicates that the uptrend, which started in November 2023, is likely to persist and could push the index toward its historical peak from 2021. While currently experiencing a minor pullback, the index continues to form higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near its midpoint, indicating a neutral market sentiment in the short-term. 

Our Stance: It could be said that the broader NZ market was impacted by the decline in the healthcare sector. It seems that the investor optimism has further strengthened after Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and the US Fed’s decision to cut rates. However, on 12th November 2024,  Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.86%. Moving forward, Friday's retail sales report is one of the critical releases which might affect the broader markets.  

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