Inflation Concerns Keep NZ Market Performance Mixed

index Update: New Zealand markets delivered a mixed performance as investor sentiment remained cautious amid renewed global Inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. While some positive corporate developments provided support, broader caution and selective profit-taking kept overall market direction subdued. On May 25, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a marginal decline of 0.16% to end at 12,970.280, while S&P/NZX 20 Index slightly rose by 0.02% to 7,382.890.   

Macro Update: As per Stats NZ, seasonally adjusted retail sales volumes rose to $26 billion in the March 2026 quarter, marking a 0.9% increase compared with the December 2025 quarter. The total value of seasonally adjusted retail sales increased to $32 billion, up 2.2% or $683 million. The total value of actual stock as at 31 March 2026 increased to $9.3 billion, up 2.5% or $229 million compared with 31 March 2025.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) witnessed a rise of 15.38% to end at $0.015 per share. On the other hand, EROAD Limited (NZX: ERD) declined by 8.00% to $0.92 per share.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened during early Asian trading on Monday amid optimism surrounding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which pressured oil prices below USD 100 per barrel, despite the Trump administration downplaying prospects of an imminent Iran agreement. Gold rose 0.16% to USD 4,563.65, silver advanced 2.38% to USD 78.010, and copper increased 1.08% to USD 13,669.00. Meanwhile, Brent Crude declined 4.71% to USD 95.53 per barrel. 

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Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

Although the S&P/NZX 50 staged a strong rebound early in the session, it later surrendered all of its gains and finished marginally below the previous close, slipping 21.03 points, or 0.16%, to end at 12,970.28. From a technical perspective, this price behaviour indicates that the index remains trapped within the previously identified triangle formation, reflecting neutral sentiment in the near term. 

However, the broader downtrend from the January 2026 high of 13,757.71 remains intact, as the benchmark continues to trade beneath the critical resistance level at 13,282.97. Immediate support is seen around 12,726.35, and a decisive break below this level would reinforce expectations for a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend. Conversely, a sustained breakout above 13,282.97, accompanied by stronger trading Volume, would be required to invalidate the bearish outlook and signal the possibility of a broader trend Reversal.  

Our Stance: US markets remain broadly positive, supported by strong corporate Earnings and continued investor enthusiasm around AI-led growth themes. However, sentiment remains cautious as inflation concerns, elevated bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty create Volatility. Overall, the market trend is constructive, but investors are becoming more selective amid macroeconomic risks. The NZ markets have shown a cautious but resilient trend. Investor sentiment remains tempered by global inflation concerns, Interest Rate uncertainty, and softer economic conditions. Overall, trading has been mixed, with gains in quality names offset by broader market caution.