Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: On 5th May 2025, the broader NZ market closed the trading session in green amidst robust buying in the real estate sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 0.76% to end the session at 12,421.250 and S&P/NZX 20 Index increased by 0.90% to close at 7,370.670. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered an increase of 0.69% to 12,322.130. Notably, S&P/NZX All Real Estate encountered a strong increase of 1.93% to end at 1,523.900.   

Macro Update: Stats NZ released agricultural production statistics for the year ended June 2024 (final). As of 30 June 2024, the number of dairy cattle stood at 5.8 Mn, reflecting a decline of 1% from 2023 and beef cattle was 3.7 Mn, implying 1% increase from 2023. During the year to 30 June 2024, the area of wheat harvested stood at 46,400 hectares, reflecting a 15% increase from 2023. Notably, barley harvested was 46,200 hectares, implying 8% decrease from 2023.   

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, Smartpay Holdings Limited (NZX: SPY) witnessed a rise of 18.34% to end the session at $1.0 per share. On the other hand, Serko Limited (NZX: SKO) fell by 3.94%.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday amid a sharp rise in the Taiwanese dollar, fuelling speculation of regional currency revaluations to gain U.S. trade leverage. Gold rose 1.10% to $3,278.92, silver edged up 0.19% to $32.32, and copper climbed 2.07% to $9,398.25. Brent crude fell 3.39% to $59.20 in early Asian trade on rising supply concerns as OPEC+ plans faster output hikes. 

A graph showing a stock market AI-generated content may be incorrect., Picture

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

After undergoing a correction, the S&P/NZX 50 broke above its previous peak of 12,400 points and crossed the 50-day simple moving average, a key trend-following indicator - suggesting a potential recovery is underway. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising above the midpoint, lending further support to this outlook. If this momentum continues, the index may approach the upward trendline that has been in place since October 2023, near the 12,750-point level, which could influence its next direction.  

Our Stance: It could be said that robust buying in the real estate sector somewhat supported the broader NZ market on 5th May 2025. As of now, the investors are focusing towards the US Federal Reserve. The announcements related to the rate cuts might provide a fresh direction to the global and NZ equity markets. Furthermore, the investors are required to closely assess the path forward for the US rate cuts over the remainder of the year. Notably, the markets might remain volatile until the monetary policy direction becomes clearer.   

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