Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: On 9th May 2025, the broader NZ market closed higher after significant buying was witnessed in the energy sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 1.11% to end the session at 12,605.070 and S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 1.16% to close at 7,471.870. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a rise of 1.38% to 12,499.310. Also, healthcare sector ended higher, and S&P/NZX All Health Care encountered a rise of 1.98% to 3,050.150. However, S&P/NZX All Materials declined by 1.22% to 1,066.930.   

Macro Update: As per the FEU dated 2nd May 2025, the merchandise trade in the March month support the strength of the export sector. NZ’s annual trade deficit narrowed to $6.1 Bn in March, from $6.5 Bn in February. As per the release, China’s manufacturing sector witnessed a contraction in April amid uncertainty related to the trade policy with the US. Also, the US manufacturing sector declined in April amid downside risks to the economic outlook as well as increased costs.  

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, AoFrio Limited (NZX: AOF) witnessed a rise of 10.00% to end the session at $0.099 per share. On the other hand, Being AI Limited (NZX: BAI) declined by 7.22%.    

Commodity Update: The dollar rose for the week amid fading U.S. rate cut bets and optimism from a U.S.-UK trade deal, boosting hopes for U.S.-China talks. Gold dipped 0.02% to $3,305.60, silver fell 0.21% to $32.55, and copper slid 0.51% to $9,388.60. Brent crude edged up 0.20% to $62.95, tempered by dollar strength. Geopolitical tensions flared as India and Pakistan saw their worst clashes in decades.  

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Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

After undergoing a correction, the S&P/NZX 50 broke above its previous peak of 12,400 points and crossed the 50-day simple moving average, a key trend-following indicator - suggesting a potential recovery is underway. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising above the midpoint, lending further support to this outlook. If this momentum continues, the index may approach the upward trendline that has been in place since October 2023, near the 12,750-point level, which could influence its next direction.  

Our Stance: The significant buying in the energy sector somewhat supported the broader NZ market on 9th May 2025. As of now, the broader global markets are positively reacting to the news related to the trade deal. The geopolitical worries, together with the volatile commodity prices, continue to give a mixed picture. Considering such dynamics, it is advised that investors are required to maintain a balanced outlook. They need to closely track the positive developments and challenges which can impact global growth and market stability over the upcoming few months.  

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