Index Update: On 24th July 2025, the broader NZ market ended the trading session on a flat note amidst buying in the materials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 0.09% to end at 12,805.130 and S&P/NZX 20 Index increased by 0.07% to 7,499.260. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a rise of 0.27% to 12,527.420. Notably, some buying was witnessed in the materials sector and S&P/NZX All Materials rose by 1.57%.   

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about overseas merchandise trade (June 2025). In June 2025, goods exports increased $601 Mn (or 10%) to $6.6 billion, and goods imports increased $1.0 Bn (or 19%) to $6.5 Bn as compared to June 2024. The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $142 Mn. Notably, fruit exports stood at $738 Mn in June 2025, a 25% rise ($146 Mn) as compared to June 2024.   

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels NZ Limited (NZX: MCK) witnessed a rise of 6.76% to end at $3.0 per share. On the other hand, Metro Performance Glass Limited (NZX: MPG) declined by 6.00% to $0.047 per share.  

Commodity Update: The euro edged closer to a four-year high Thursday amid optimism over U.S.-EU trade talks. The yen held firm as markets reacted positively to signs of easing trade tensions. Gold dipped 0.26% to $3,388.95, while silver fell 0.43% to $39.33. Copper rose slightly by 0.13% to $9,942.95. Brent crude gained 0.40% to $68.75, supported by trade optimism and a sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories.

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Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

After experiencing a period of consolidation that followed a sustained upward rally beginning in October 2023, the S&P/NZX 50 index broke decisively above a key resistance level at 12,881 points - an area previously marked by its former peak. This breakout suggests renewed bullish momentum in the market and signals the potential for further upside movement. If the current trend continues, the index may be poised to retest its most recent high, which lies around 13,250 points. Supporting this bullish outlook, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trending upward from the midpoint, indicating strengthening market momentum and improving investor sentiment.  

Our Stance: It could be said that the market investors continue to reassess the risks ahead of the key global trade developments. Also, the volatility in commodities as well as currency markets reflects that there can be cautious optimism on a global basis. While the global trade developments might continue to impact the markets, the investors are required to keep close track on the interest rate movements. In the next week, the decision from the US Fed about interest rates remains critical.  

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