Shareholders of NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V. (NASDAQ:NAMS) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$20.91 following its latest full-year results. Revenues came in 41% better than analyst models expected, at US$46m, although statutory losses ballooned 24% to US$2.52, which is much worse than what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for NewAmsterdam Pharma NasdaqGM:NAMS Earnings and Revenue Growth February 28th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering NewAmsterdam Pharma provided consensus estimates of US$10.1m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a stressful 78% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 14% from last year to US$1.89. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$6.93m and US$1.78 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts significantly increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase. It looks like the top line growth will not be achieved without incremental costs.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$43.47, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on NewAmsterdam Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$51.48 and the most bearish at US$35.39 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the NewAmsterdam Pharma's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that NewAmsterdam Pharma's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 78% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 35% a year over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 20% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately NewAmsterdam Pharma is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$43.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple NewAmsterdam Pharma analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for NewAmsterdam Pharma that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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