Highlights

  • Adjusted US GAAP EBITDA for FY26 is expected between USD 10.3 million and USD 10.7 million, representing 17–22% growth on FY25.
  • Previous guidance of USD 11 million to USD 12 million has been revised downward.
  • Brazil continues to record year-on-year volume growth, while the US business focuses on higher-value seedling products.

ArborGen Holdings Limited (NZX:ARB) has updated its earnings guidance for the financial year ending 31 March 2026, citing ongoing market headwinds in the US South and timing impacts in Brazil. The company now expects adjusted US GAAP EBITDA to range between USD 10.3 million and USD 10.7 million. ArborGen shares were trading at NZD 0.12 on 12 February 2026.

Revised FY26 EBITDA Outlook

ArborGen stated that adjusted US GAAP EBITDA is projected to increase between 17% and 22% compared with FY25, when EBITDA was USD 8.8 million. The revised guidance range of USD 10.3 million to USD 10.7 million is below the company’s earlier forecast of USD 11 million to USD 12 million.

The company said it remains on track to deliver year-on-year improvements in revenue and gross margin despite challenging conditions in certain markets.

Brazil Demand Remains Elevated

ArborGen reported continued demand growth in Brazil, with year-on-year volume momentum sustained in the market.

However, anticipated upside in the fourth quarter has been lower than expected. The timing of sales was affected by a slower-than-anticipated start to planting activity in the new year among large customers.

US Business Navigates Market Conditions

In the United States, operations are performing in line with expectations amid persistent weak market conditions in the US South.

The company said it is prioritising higher-value offerings, including MCP advanced genetic seedlings and containerised seedlings, to support revenue and volumes during the current market cycle.

ArborGen continues to position itself as a supplier of advanced genetics tree seedlings across the US South and Brazil.

Strategic Positioning and Market Dynamics

The company highlighted supportive market dynamics in both key regions. Recent initiatives aimed at improving operating leverage, expanding geographic footprint and enhancing higher-value customer offerings are underway.

Management said these initiatives are intended to support financial performance despite broader sector challenges.

ArborGen’s updated FY26 outlook points to continued year-on-year growth in revenue, gross margin and EBITDA, although at a lower range than previously indicated. Market conditions in the US South and timing shifts in Brazil have influenced the revised forecast.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

  1. What is ArborGen’s updated FY26 EBITDA guidance?
    Adjusted US GAAP EBITDA is expected to be between USD 10.3 million and USD 10.7 million.
  2. Why was guidance revised?
    The company cited lower-than-expected fourth-quarter upside in Brazil and ongoing weak conditions in the US South.
  3. Where are ArborGen’s key markets?
    ArborGen operates primarily in the US South and Brazil, supplying advanced genetic tree seedlings.