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Highlights

  • Jefferies maintains ‘Buy’ rating on Infratil, sets target price at NZD 13.00, implying 23.22% upside
  • Infratil posts FY25 net loss of NZD 261.3 million, driven by lower asset revaluations
  • Operational EBITDAF up 8.6% to NZD 986.4 million, hitting top end of guidance
  • FY26 guidance projects up to NZD 1.05 billion in Operational EBITDAF
  • CDC Data Centres signs record 230MW in contracts, set to double EBITDAF in 2 years
  • FY26 capital expenditure guidance ranges NZD 2.2–$2.6 billion

Jefferies has reiterated its “Buy” rating on Infratil Ltd (NZX:IFT), assigning a target price of NZD 13.00, suggesting a 23.22% premium to the current share price of NZD 10.55.

This reaffirmation comes despite Infratil swinging to a net loss of NZD 261.3 million for the financial year ended 31 March 2025, a sharp turnaround from its NZD 761.3 million profit in the previous year. The loss primarily stemmed from a significant drop in asset revaluation gains. Nevertheless, underlying performance remained resilient, with Operational EBITDAF up 8.6% to NZD 986.4 million, at the top end of guidance.

CDC Leads Growth, Signals Doubling of Earnings

One of the standout performers was CDC (Canberra Data Centres), which had a record year.
“CDC signed more than 230MW of new contracts during the year – including reservations and rights of first refusal – its largest ever annual addition,” said CEO Jason Boyes. “CDC expects to double its EBITDAF over the next two years, with approximately 80% of that revenue already contracted, demonstrating its ability to convert demand into earnings.”

This robust growth outlook underpins Infratil’s confidence in its FY2026 Operational EBITDAF guidance, projected at NZD 1.0–1.05 billion—a 9% increase on a like-for-like basis, excluding Manawa Energy.

Expansion Plans and Renewable Investment

Infratil continues to invest heavily in infrastructure and renewables. The company has issued Proportionate Development EBITDAF guidance indicating a loss of NZD 85–105 million across its renewable development platforms—Gurīn Energy, Galileo, and Mint Renewables.

Looking ahead, capital expenditure for FY2026 is forecast at NZD 2.2–2.6 billion.

Returns to Shareholders

Despite the headline loss, Infratil has declared a final dividend of 13.25 NZ cents per share, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns. The Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) remains active, offering investors the option to reinvest dividends into additional shares.