Why Did NZ Shares Gain Despite Global Market Uncertainty?

index Update: On 11th May, the broader NZ market closed marginally higher amidst buying in the financial sector, with S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessing a rise of 0.27% to end at 13,210.480 and S&P/NZX 20 Index increasing 0.41% to 7,515.430. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index increased by 0.54% to 12,783.650. Notably, buying momentum was witnessed in the financial sector and S&P/NZX All Financials rose by 3.46%. However, S&P/NZX All Materials fell by 2.69%.   

Macro Update: As per the FEU dated 7 May 2026, the labour market continues to reflect recent economic strength, although weaker household and Business confidence signals ongoing risks to the broader outlook. Despite Volatility in oil markets and concerns that higher fuel prices could weaken global consumer Demand, prices for New Zealand’s key export commodities remained elevated in April.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Being AI Limited (NZX: BAI) witnessed a rise of 8.00% to end at $0.027 per share. On the other hand, Vulcan Steel Limited (NZX: VSL) declined by 4.58% to $6.25 per share.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies in early Asian trade on Monday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations of economic resilience. Safe-haven demand also increased as the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire remained under pressure. Gold declined 0.81% to USD 4,692.50, while silver gained 0.83% to USD 81.53 and copper rose 0.52% to USD 13,634.00. Brent Crude oil surged 3.10% to USD 104.43 after U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal as “totally unacceptable,” keeping geopolitical tensions elevated. 

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Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

In the most recent Trading session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index staged a modest recovery from the prior pullback, rising 35.36 points, or 0.27%, to finish at 13,210.48. From a technical standpoint, although the benchmark came under strong selling pressure early in the session after retreating from the short-term descending Trendline drawn from the latest peak, it later erased all intraday losses and formed a bullish Hammer candlestick, suggesting that the near-term positive bias remains intact. In addition, the 14-period RSI remains above its midpoint, signalling improving short-term market sentiment. 

Nevertheless, despite the recent rebound, the broader downtrend that began from the January 2026 high of 13,757.71 remains intact, with the index still trading below the key resistance level at the mid-March peak of 13,339.06. Immediate support is located at 12,689, and a decisive break beneath this level would strengthen expectations of a continuation in the prevailing bearish trend. On the other hand, a sustained breakout above 13,339.06, supported by stronger trading Volume, would be needed to negate the bearish outlook and indicate the possibility of a trend Reversal.  

Our Stance: The US markets remained supported by strong momentum in AI and technology stocks, with investors continuing to favour companies linked to data centres, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure. The corporate Earnings were generally solid, although investors stayed cautious around Inflation, Interest Rate expectations, and geopolitical risks. New Zealand markets traded cautiously as investors balanced improving economic signals against ongoing global uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence. The commodity prices and export demand continued to support sentiment toward key export-focused companies. Investors also remained focused on inflation trends, Reserve Bank policy expectations, and broader global market movements.