Index Update: On 12th January, the broader NZ market closed the trading session in red amidst selling in the energy sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a fall of 0.09% to end at 13,683.290 and S&P/NZX 20 Index declined by 0.23% to 7,774.890. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a decline of 0.23%. Notably, S&P/NZX All Energy witnessed a decline of 2.02% to end at 2,677.310.  

Macro Update: As per half-year economic and fiscal update 2025, the core crown tax revenue is expected to decline as a share of GDP, from 27.9% in 2024/25 to 27.3% in 2025/26. There are expectations that around half of the decline would be due to the economic cycle as well as roughly one half because of policy changes, mainly the impact of Investment Boost.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Rakon Limited (NZX: RAK) witnessed a rise of 51.11% to end at $1.36 per share. On the other hand, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) declined by 8.33%.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar eased from its strongest level in one month on Monday after U.S. prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, intensifying tensions with the Trump administration. Gold rose 2.00 % to USD 4,590.96, silver surged 4.93 % to USD 83.26, and copper climbed 0.97 % to USD 13,106.35. Brent crude was slightly down 0.01 % at USD 63.29 amid Iran supply concerns. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group 

During Monday’s session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index extended its mild pullback after probing its record high, easing 12.98 points, or 0.09%, to settle at 13,683.28. Even so, the index remains close to its all-time high of 13,747.71 set in November 2025. A decisive move above this threshold could reignite upward momentum, with the next immediate resistance situated near the 14,000 level. From a momentum standpoint, technical signals remain supportive, as the 14-day RSI has rebounded from its neutral zone, indicating an improvement in market sentiment and sustaining a constructive near-term outlook. Alternatively, the index may persist in a sideways consolidation, capped by its record high and underpinned by a key support area associated with the 2024 peak. In this case, initial support is identified at the previous low of 13,229.25. 

Our Stance: As of now, it seems that the global markets are being influenced by geopolitical risks as well as global unrest. While the macroeconomic releases will continue to weigh over the market sentiments, the traders and investors are now required to closely track the earnings reports. Talking about NZ, half-year economic and fiscal update 2025 highlighted the expectations of OBEGALx (or Operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC) returning to surplus in 2029/30 due to a rise in core Crown tax revenue as a share of GDP, a decline in core Crown expenses as a share of GDP as well as improved Crown entity performance.  

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