NZX Ends Marginally Lower Despite Rebound in Global Markets

Index Update: On 10th March, the broader NZ market closed lower amidst selling in the consumer discretionary sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a marginal fall of 0.03% to end at 13,094.370 and S&P/NZX 20 Index declined by 0.07% to 7,413.550. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index witnessed a fall of 0.13% to 12,628.250. Notably, S&P/NZX All Consumer Discretionary encountered a fall of 0.95% to end at 727.170.     

Macro Update: In the release dated 18th February, RBNZ stated that the spare capacity in the labour market is significant but is stabilizing. Even though the unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, key measures of employment strengthened in the December quarter. The labour market is anticipated to continue to strengthen as the nascent recovery in economic activity broadens across 2026.    

Market Movers: Among top gainers, TruScreen Group Limited (NZX: TRU) witnessed a rise of 5.88% to end at $0.018 per share. On the other hand, CDL Investments New Zealand Limited (NZX: CDI) declined by 6.71%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened, losing some of its safe-haven appeal amid speculation that the Middle East conflict may remain limited. Improved risk sentiment supported metals, with gold rising 1.51% to USD 5,181.50, silver surging 5.96% to USD 89.54, and copper gaining 1.17% to USD 13,083.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell 6.60% to USD 92.45 after hitting a three-year high earlier, as hopes of easing geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over global oil supply disruptions.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index staged a solid rebound early in the session but ultimately surrendered those gains, finishing marginally below the previous close. The benchmark slipped 4.45 points, or 0.03%, to settle at 13,094.37. Despite the minor pullback, recent price action continues to suggest a constructive short-term outlook. Key technical levels remain the former high at 13,757.71, which now serves as resistance, and the previous low at 13,022.30, acting as support. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has moved below its midpoint, signaling that momentum has turned negative. A decisive break below the nearby support level could therefore open the door to a short-term decline. If such a breakdown occurs, the next notable support is likely to appear around 12,873.07, aligned with the May 2025 peak, where buying interest may emerge and potentially spark a rebound.  

Our Stance: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite show volatile but slightly positive trends as investors react to global developments. Rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions have increased concerns about inflation and economic slowdown. Investors remain wary of geopolitical risks and inflation data, which could drive further market swings. The S&P/NZX 50 has been choppy with recent declines, sliding after a global selloff tied to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. The investors are watching sectors like airlines and tourism closely. Overall, markets are reactive to global energy, inflation fears, and companyspecific drivers.