NZ Market Posts Strong Gains: What’s Next?

Index Update: On 11th March, the broader NZ market closed higher amidst buying momentum in the financials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 1.52% to end at 13,293.130 and S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 1.59% to 7,531.480. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index fell by 1.80%. Notably, S&P/NZX All Financials encountered a rise of 2.40% to close at 1,622.370.   

Macro Update: As per FEU dated 26th February, the December quarter retail trade survey demonstrated a continued pickup in retail activity, remaining consistent with the steady growth in household spending. The retail sale volumes rose 0.9% in the quarter. This was after the strong 1.9% rise in the previous quarter. The retail activity was consistent with the gradual pickup in household spending.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Serko Limited (NZX: SKO) witnessed a rise of 5.64% to end at $2.06 per share. On the other hand, My Food Bag Group Limited (NZX: MFB) declined by 6.98%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained steady on Wednesday as investors stayed cautious, waiting for clearer developments in the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran. Uncertainty around a potential resolution kept overall market sentiment fragile. In commodities, gold slipped 0.40% to USD 5,221.40, silver declined 0.88% to USD 88.78, and copper eased 0.31% to USD 13,129. Meanwhile, Brent crude edged up 0.13% to USD 87.91 after reports that the IEA may release record oil reserves to ease supply concerns.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index rebounded strongly in the latest session after three consecutive days of losses, gaining 198.76 points, or 1.52%, to close at 13,293.13. From a technical standpoint, price action is currently forming a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, pointing to the possible development of a symmetrical triangle, a pattern typically associated with a consolidation phase. Key technical levels remain the previous peak at 13,757.71, which now acts as resistance, and the prior trough at 13,022.30, providing support and defining the boundaries of the current trading range. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward its midpoint, indicating that momentum has normalized to a neutral reading, reinforcing the view that the benchmark may continue to consolidate in the near term.  

Our Stance: As of now, the US market is being impacted by the rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. These factors are adding volatility and inflation concerns. Moving forward, broader economic indicators, such as jobs, inflation, and consumer spending are expected to impact the broader market momentum. Coming to the NZ market, domestic economic indicators like monetary policy, housing stability, and corporate earnings are influencing investor confidence. Export sectors (e.g., food & fibre) and manufacturing show strength, while currency movements (NZD swings) reflect global risk sentiment and RBNZ policy expectations.