NZ Market Ends Significantly Higher

Index Update: On 22nd December, the NZ market ended significantly higher amidst buying momentum in the consumer staples sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 1.31% to end at 13,508.300 and S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 1.39% to 7,690.450. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered an increase of 1.55% to close at 12,899.570. Notably, S&P/NZX All Consumer Staples witnessed a rise of 2.56%.     

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about overseas merchandise trade (November 2025). In November 2025, goods exports witnessed a rise of $588 Mn (or 9.2%) to $7.0 Bn, and goods imports increased $301 Mn (or 4.4%) to $7.2 Bn compared to November 2024. The monthly trade balance was deficit of $163 Mn. The Apple exports increased $280 Mn (or 29%) to $1.3 Bn in the year to November 2025, led by Royal gala.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Minerals Exploration Limited (NZX: MEX) witnessed a rise of 8.33% to end at $0.195 per share. On the other hand, 2 Cheap Cars Group Limited (NZX: 2CC) declined by 6.72%.   

Commodity Update: The yen hovered near a record low against the euro on Monday after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious tone despite Friday’s rate hike. Rising geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, with gold climbing 0.71% to $4,418.65 and silver jumping 2.36% to $69.08. Copper rose 0.72% to USD 11,959.00, while Brent crude edged up 0.073% to USD 60.91 after a U.S. tanker interception. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

Following a corrective phase that tested a key support zone aligned with the 2024 peak, the S&P/NZX 50 Index extended its rebound in the latest session, posting a strong gain of 174.91 points, or 1.13%, to close at 15,508.30. Although the market remains in a retracement from its record high, the index continues to hold decisively above an important support area associated with the 2024 high. From a technical perspective, the short-term structure remains constructive, supported by a sustained sequence of higher highs and higher lows, with price action comfortably above critical technical thresholds. As long as this major support zone remains intact, the broader uptrend that commenced in October 2023 is expected to persist. Immediate support is identified near 13,270, and continued trading above this level is crucial to preserving bullish momentum and facilitating another challenge of the all-time high. In contrast, a clear break below 13,270 would indicate a more pronounced corrective move, potentially opening the door for a decline toward the 13,000 region before the primary uptrend reasserts itself.  

Our Stance: It could be said that strong buying momentum in the consumer staples sector somewhat supported the broader NZ market on December 22. While the global investors enter the holiday-shortened week, the investors are required to be cautious about the broader momentum in the US equities amidst valuation concerns, AI uncertainty, as well as trade policies. Talking about NZ, RBNZ (in the release dated 26 November) noted that there are some early signs of stabilisation in labour demand, and job vacancies and total hours worked rose in the quarter ended September. This can broaden into the wider improvement in labour market conditions over upcoming quarters, which would help household confidence and spending.