NZ Market Ends Marginally Lower Amidst Global Worries

Index Update: On 13th March, the broader NZ market closed marginally lower amidst macro-economic worries and sell-off in the US markets. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a fall of 0.09% to end at 13,187.340 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.17% to 7,457.720. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 0.13% to close at 12,733.750. Notably, significant selling was witnessed in the materials sector, with S&P/NZX All Materials falling by 2.30%.    

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about business financial data (December 2025 quarter). For all business financial data (BFD) industries, in the December 2025 quarter, sales amounted to $212 Bn, up by $12 Bn (or 5.9%) compared to the December 2024 quarter. The purchases amounted to $147 Bn, reflecting a rise of $7.6 Bn (or 5.4%). The salaries and wages stood at $33 Bn, up by $594 Mn (or 1.8%)  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Comvita Limited (NZX: CVT) witnessed a rise of 4.48% to $0.70 per share. On the other hand, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) declined by 11.76% to $0.015 per share.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained firm on Friday, heading toward its second weekly advance since tensions escalated in Iran, as global uncertainty supported demand for safe-haven assets. In commodities, gold slipped 0.22% to USD 5,114.70, silver declined 0.62% to USD 84.58, and copper eased 0.31% to USD 12,944.59. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell 0.71% to USD 99.75 after the U.S. granted a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil shipments currently stranded at sea.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

In the latest trading session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index declined sharply during the day but staged a late recovery near its previous trough, regaining most of the earlier losses and forming a Bullish Hammer candlestick. The index closed at 13,187.35, down only 11.95 points, or 0.09%. From a technical standpoint, recent price movements continue to outline a pattern of lower highs and higher lows, indicating the possible emergence of a symmetrical triangle, typically viewed as a consolidation structure. Key technical levels remain the prior peak at 13,757.71, which now serves as resistance, and the earlier trough at 13,022.30, which provides support and defines the lower boundary of the current trading range. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted back toward its midpoint, suggesting that momentum has cooled to a neutral level. This development supports the expectation that the benchmark may remain in a consolidation phase over the near term.  

Our Stance: As of now, the U.S. stock market is currently seeing a shift in trends. Rising oil prices are boosting energy companies, with investors rotating money away from big tech stocks toward sectors like energy, industrials, and materials. The S&P/NZX 50 has been volatile, with rising geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher and pressuring global markets. Overall, the NZ market trend seems to be stable long-term but currently affected by global war risks and higher energy prices.