NZ Market Ends Lower Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

Index Update: On 2nd March, the broader NZ market witnessed selling pressure, amidst sell-off in the IT sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 0.48% to end at 13,656.650 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.43% to 7,755.750. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 0.24% to 13,272.220. Notably, strong selling was witnessed in the technology sector and S&P/NZX All Information Technology fell by 3.14%.     

Macro Update: As per the FEU dated 26 February 2026, the monthly selected price indexes (SPI) for January reflected the increased food price inflation. However, the pricing pressures in other categories remained more subdued. Also, the December quarter retail trade survey demonstrated a continued pickup in retail activity. This was consistent with the steady growth in household spending.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Bremworth Limited (NZX: BRW) witnessed a rise of 14.18% to end at $0.765 per share. Tourism Holdings Limited (NZX: THL) declined by 9.56% to $2.46 per share.  

Commodity Update: Safe-haven demand intensified on Monday after escalating tensions in the Middle East unsettled global markets. The euro weakened while the U.S. dollar strengthened, and the Swiss franc advanced as risk aversion deepened. Gold climbed 2.25% to USD 5,367.70, while silver gained 1.44% to USD 94.64. Copper edged down 0.07% to USD 13,360.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 7.37% to USD 78.24, reaching multi-month highs amid supply disruption concerns.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

After a sharp early sell-off, the S&P/NZX 50 Index clawed back most of its losses by the close of the latest session, finishing at 13,656.64 points, down 66.33 points, or 0.48%. Price action produced a Hammer candlestick just above the upward trendline that has been in place since April 2025, signaling that the short-term bias remains constructive. Ahead, the index is contending with a single meaningful resistance near 13,375.71, which marks its prior peak and the final barrier to setting a new high. A clear break above this level would likely open the door to further upside, whereas failure to do so could see the market consolidate between recent highs and nearby support. Reinforcing the positive technical tone, the RSI has turned higher from neutral territory, pointing to strengthening bullish momentum.  

Our Stance: As of now, U.S. markets are under pressure from escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, which are fueling inflation fears. Tech and growth stocks face volatility due to AI uncertainty, while investors are shifting toward safer assets like bonds and gold ahead of key economic data. Coming to the NZ markets, it seems that the RBNZ policy expectations (rate outlook and inflation trends) would influence bonds, the NZD, and equity valuations. The global geopolitical tensions (especially Middle East conflict) continue to dampen the risk appetite of NZ investors.