Index Update: On 16th February, the broader NZ market ended in red amidst selling in the energy sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a fall of 0.61% to end at 13,117.910 and S&P/NZX 20 Index declined by 0.56% to 7,467.880. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index fell by 0.23% to 12,571.150. Notably, strong selling was witnessed in the energy sector, with S&P/NZX All Energy declining by 3.81%.     

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about electronic card transactions (January 2026). In January 2026, spending in the retail industries fell 1.1% (or $78 Mn) and spending in the core retail industries fell 0.9% (or $60 Mn) compared to December 2025. By the retail spending category, hospitality was down by $32 Mn (or 2.1%) and durables were down $28 Mn (or 1.7%).   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Enprise Group Limited (NZX: ENS) witnessed a rise of 5.66% to end at $0.56 per share. On the other hand, Vista Group International Ltd (NZX: VGL) declined 8.89%.   

Commodity Update: The Japanese yen eased after last week’s rally, while the U.S. dollar held firm as softer inflation data strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Thin liquidity prevailed with U.S., China, Taiwan and South Korea markets shut for holidays. Gold fell 0.57% to USD 5,017.60, silver slipped 2.90%, and copper declined 0.54%, while Brent crude edged up 0.20% amid U.S.–Iran supply concerns and weak Japan growth data.  

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index failed to retest the resistance zone defined by the December 2024 peak and subsequently fell 80.28 points, or 0.61%, to close at 13,117.90. This downside follow-through confirms the negative signal formed in the previous session, signalling that short-term market dynamics have shifted more decisively into a corrective phase rather than a continuation of the prior advance. From a technical perspective, immediate support is now identified around the 12,880 area. This level represents a zone where renewed buying interest could emerge, potentially stabilising prices and setting the stage for a short-term rebound. Additionally, after the pullback from the most recent peak, the 14-day RSI momentum oscillator has declined toward oversold territory, adding weight to the view that the current correction could be approaching a near-term inflection point, although confirmation from price action is still required.  

Our Stance: As of now, the broader US markets are reacting to cooler inflation as well as declining bond yields. Moving forward, the markets are expected to be impacted by the macro-economic releases as well as uncertainties related to the trade policies. Coming to the NZ markets, all eyes are on RBNZ’s decision about the OCR. The meeting is expected to take place on 18 February 2026. The macro-economic releases are expected to influence market momentum and investors’ sentiments.  

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