NZ Market Ends in Red

Index Update:  On 15th January, the broader NZ market ended in red amidst selling pressure in the IT sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 0.71% to end at 13,659.790 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.77% to 7,760.380. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 0.83%. Notably, S&P/NZX All Information Technology witnessed a strong sell-off, with the index declining by 2.80%.     

Macro Update:  The half-year economic and fiscal update 2025 highlighted that net core Crown debt is expected to increase as a share of GDP till it reaches 46.9% in 2027/28. This is because of additional borrowings to fund operating deficits as well as investments. Furthermore, it is then expected to decline by the end of the forecasted period. The forecast assumes capital allowances for new investments to the tune of $3.5 Bn per Budget. 

Market Movers: Among top gainers, 2 Cheap Cars Group Limited (NZX: 2CC) witnessed a rise of 12.50%. On the other hand, Vista Group International Ltd (NZX: VGL) declined by 6.38%.   

Commodity Update: The yen held onto overnight gains but remained pinned near 18-month lows, as caution over possible intervention persisted amid Japan’s election outlook and expectations of added fiscal stimulus. In commodities, gold slipped 0.85% to USD 4,596.70, silver fell 3.75% to USD 88.10, and copper eased 1.17% to USD 13,069.00. Brent crude dropped 2.40% to USD 64.94, retreating from multi-month highs after U.S. President Donald Trump eased concerns over potential U.S. military action against Iran.  

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

In the most recent trading session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index retreated from the prior advance, declining 97.91 points, or 0.71%. Notwithstanding this corrective move, the benchmark had already confirmed a breakout above its former record high of 13,747.71, set in November 2025, during the previous session. This technical breach reinforces the prospect of renewed upside momentum, with the next immediate resistance and near-term target situated around the 14,000 psychological threshold. From a momentum perspective, indicators remain supportive, with the 14-day RSI curling higher from neutral levels, signalling improving market conviction and underpinning a constructive short-term technical bias.  

Our Stance: While the sentiments of AI enthusiasts in the US were aided by the results of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd, the markets might get impacted by geopolitical issues. Coming to the NZ market, moving forward, the NZ equities are expected to be influenced by the earnings releases. As per half-year economic and fiscal update 2025, the export prices were at record high levels in the previous year, demonstrating steady demand as well as tight global supplies.