NZ Market Continues its Rally

Index Update: On 19th February, the NZ market continued its strong rally amidst broad-based recovery and favourable momentum. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 1.49% to end at 13,444.200 and S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 1.57% to close at 7,656.410. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered an increase of 1.66% to close at 12,963.150. Furthermore, strong buying was witnessed in the materials sector, with S&P/NZX All Materials increasing by 2.66%.     

Macro Update: On February 18, Stats NZ released data about Business price indexes (December 2025 quarter). During the quarter, output producers price index (PPI) witnessed a rise of 0.1% and the input PPI declined 0.5% as compared to the September 2025 quarter. Over the same period, the farm expenses price index (FEPI) increased 0.9% and the capital goods price index (CGPI) went up by 1.1%.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) rose by 9.09% to end at $0.012 per share. On the other hand, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) declined by 10.53%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve indicated policymakers remain cautious, keeping the possibility of further rate action on the table. Sterling weakened as data pointed to moderating UK inflation. In commodities, gold declined 0.42% to USD 4,988.30, silver fell 0.69% to USD 77.06, and copper slipped 0.45% to USD 12,871.60. Brent crude eased 0.20% to USD 70.23, consolidating after the previous session’s sharp 4% surge. 

Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index continued its short-term upward trajectory, rising 197.18 points (+1.49%) to close at 13,444.20, reflecting sustained buying interest and improving sentiment. The advance suggests constructive price action as investors step back into the market. From a technical standpoint, the index remains in a recovery phase; however, a decisive break below the key support zone could revive downside pressure, with the next meaningful support seen near the prior trough around 13,200. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge near the 13,650 level, which may cap further gains in the near term. The 14-period RSI remains in bullish territory, supporting the current positive bias and indicating steady momentum.  

Our Stance: As of now, the U.S. equities are being driven by mixed tech performance and macro uncertainty. That being said, there are worries about inflation, lack of imminent Fed rate cuts, and profit-taking in tech, which are keeping the indices volatile. Talking about the NZ markets, while the buying momentum continued, there are risks if the global uncertainties weigh over the investors’ sentiments. The muted global growth or tighter U.S. monetary conditions could impact the commodity demand. Therefore, NZ investors are required to maintain a cautious stance.