NZ Market Closes Higher Amidst Buying in Consumer Discretionary Sector       Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

                                                    Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd 

Index Update: On 3rd October 2025, the NZ market closed the trading session higher amidst buying in the discretionary sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 0.46% to end at 13,514.090 and S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 0.33% to 7,756.570. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered an increase of 0.30% to 12,927.510. Notably, strong buying was witnessed in the discretionary sector and S&P/NZX All Consumer Discretionary rose by 1.95%.  

Macro Update: As per the FEU dated 25 September 2025, the weaker-than-expected GDP result demonstrates that the economy is operating with more spare capacity than previously thought. Notably, the result reinforced RBNZ’s signal of further OCR cuts. Furthermore, the level of quarterly volatility which is visible is not unusual post-recession as the economy has been rebalancing. The recent indicators of activity and demand remain mixed.  

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers, Savor Limited (NZX: SVR) witnessed a rise of 7.53% to end at $0.20 per share. On the other hand, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) declined by 5.56%.  

Commodity Update: The dollar rebounded overnight despite the U.S. government shutdown halting key economic data, including September’s jobs report. Gold rose 0.15% to $3,873.75, silver gained 0.82% to $46.75, and copper edged up 0.18% to $10,510.30. Brent crude added 0.18% to $64.29 after four sessions of losses but remained on track for its steepest weekly fall since June amid expectations that OPEC+ may boost output despite oversupply worries. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group 

After a short-term correction within a broader uptrend characterized by a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the S&P/NZX 50 index has recently broken above its 2024 peak at 13,270. This breakout provides confirmation that the underlying bullish structure remains intact and could act as a catalyst for renewed upward momentum. From a technical perspective, this decisive breakout opens the door for a potential retest of the all-time high at 13,636. If the index can sustain its position above the former resistance at 13,270, this level may now serve as a strong support base, adding further credibility to the positive outlook. Additionally, the momentum indicator 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heading north from its midpoint, providing further support for the previous view. 

Our Stance: It could be said that buying in the discretionary sector somewhat supported the broader NZ market on 3rd October. While the broader US markets continue to increase, there are uncertainties related to the US government shutdown which might impact the investors’ sentiments. RBNZ, in its release dated 20th August, highlighted that with spare capacity in the economy as well as declining domestic inflation pressure, the headline inflation is anticipated to return to ~2% target midpoint by mid-2026.