New Zealand Markets Retreat Amid Global Risk Sentiment

Index Update: On 23rd March, the broader NZ market witnessed a decline amidst broad-based sell-off on the Wall Street on 20th March. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a fall of 0.69% to end at 12,899.720 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.69% to close at 7,275.600. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index declined by 0.27%. Notably, strong selling was witnessed in the industrials sector, with S&P/NZX All Industrials falling 2.01%.   

Macro Update: The Treasury released interim financial statements of the Government of New Zealand for the 7 months ended 31 January 2026, with operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx) showing a deficit of $6.0 Bn. The deficit came in $1.9 billion below expectations, while net core Crown debt was $1.1 billion lower than predicted, totaling $184.3 billion, or 41.9% of GDP.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, PaySauce Limited (NZX: PYS) witnessed a rise of 5.45% to end at $0.29 per share. On the other hand, Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (NZX: CRP) declined by 16.95% to $0.049 per share.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar showed signs of a rebound on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened risk appetite, supporting safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, commodities witnessed broad weakness, with gold dropping 4.79% to USD 4,389.40 and silver declining 6.56% to USD 65.10. Copper slipped 0.58%, while Brent crude remained nearly flat near USD 112.18 amid mixed signals around supply risks and easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index closed at 12,899.71, following a volatile session that reflected ongoing selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the index remains vulnerable, with a decisive break below the key support zone likely to trigger renewed downside momentum. The next major support is seen near the previous trough around 12,750. On the upside, any rebound attempts are expected to face resistance near 13,100. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the 14-period RSI positioned in bearish territory, reinforcing the prevailing negative bias. Unless lost support levels are reclaimed, the near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside, with risks of further consolidation or corrective weakness.  

Our Stance: As of late March 2026, the U.S. markets are weighed by geopolitical tensions with Iran and rising oil prices, which fueled inflation concerns. Broader sentiment was cautious, influenced by macro trends and monetary policy expectations. Overall, markets reflected a risk-off mood amid global uncertainty. Coming to NZ, the markets were subdued, impacted by sluggish domestic growth, and high unemployment. The stock-specific moves provided limited support, keeping overall market performance cautious.