New Zealand Market Wrap – NZX 50 Closes Lower Amid Economic Uncertainty

Index Update: On 26th March, the broader NZ market ended lower amidst decline in the materials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 0.32% to end at 12,935.390 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 0.19% to close at 7,315.490. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 0.02% to end at 12,554.690. Notably, materials sector witnessed strong selling momentum, with S&P/NZX All Materials declining by 3.55%.   

Macro Update: As per Stats NZ, New Zealand’s economy expanded modestly in the December 2025 quarter, with GDP increasing by 0.2 percent, following a stronger 0.9 percent rise in the September 2025 quarter. The largest boost came from the rental, hiring, and real estate services sector, which grew by 0.8 percent during the quarter. Over the full year ending December 2025, GDP also rose by 0.2 percent compared with the year ending December 2024, marking the first annual growth recorded since September 2024.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, The Warehouse Group Limited (NZX: WHS) witnessed a rise of 6.92% to end at $0.695 per share. Santana Minerals Limited (NZX: SMI) declined by 7.10%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened toward multi-month highs on Friday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating Middle East tensions and uncertainty over diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran. Gold rose 1.00% to USD 4,451.82, silver gained 0.95% to USD 68.578, and copper increased 0.80% to USD 12,232.63. Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped 1.00% to USD 100.83, reflecting easing geopolitical risk premiums and cautious optimism over negotiations.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

The S&P/NZX 50 Index edged lower in the latest session, declining by 41.62 points, or 0.32%, to settle at 12,935.38. By the end of the week, the index remained bounded between the support level derived from the May 2025 peak and the resistance marked by the February 2026 trough, suggesting a near-term consolidation phase. From a broader technical perspective, the index continues to track a short-term downtrend following its record high, as evidenced by the ongoing sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A meaningful shift in trend would require a decisive breakout above the immediate resistance at 13,020.24, corresponding to the February trough, which would indicate the potential for a short-term reversal. Absent such a move, the recent uptick should be interpreted as a corrective bounce within the prevailing bearish structure, with a higher likelihood of the downtrend reasserting itself.  

Our Stance: As of now, the US market is being pressured by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and sector-specific headwinds, while investors rotated toward defensive assets amid heightened risk aversion. Coming to the NZ market, it remained soft, with the NZX50 edging lower. Key pressures came from global geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and cautious investor sentiment amid subdued domestic growth and housing market weakness.