Index Update: On 30th March, the broader NZ market ended lower amidst decline in the health care sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 1.44% to end at 12,748.920 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 1.37% to close at 7,215.180. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 1.53% to end at 12,362.080. Notably, health care sector witnessed strong selling momentum, with S&P/NZX All Health Care declining by 3.08%.   

Macro Update: New Zealand inflation risks remain elevated as rising energy costs and prolonged Middle East tensions threaten supply chains. Inflation stood at 3.1% in Q4, exceeding the central bank’s 1%–3% target, raising expectations of potential policy tightening. Authorities cautioned that sustained geopolitical disruptions could push inflation higher in the near term.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) witnessed a rise of 25.00% to end at $0.010 per share. Accordant Group Limited  (NZX: AGL) declined by 20.00%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained firm, heading for its strongest monthly gain since July amid escalating Middle East tensions and yen weakness beyond the 160 level. Safe-haven demand supported metals, with Gold rose 0.26% to USD 4,536.15, silver gained 0.60% to USD 70.215, and copper increased 0.57% to USD 12,209.00. Energy markets strengthened as Brent crude Up 1.95% to USD 107.37, driven by geopolitical risks and supply disruption concerns.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

The S&P/NZX 50 Index declined sharply in the first session of the week, dropping 186.47 points, or 1.44%, to close at 12,748.91. The index broke below the support level established at the May 2025 peak, signalling a continuation of the short-term downtrend following its record high, as reflected in the persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Immediate support is now seen at the recent trough of 12,701.75; a decisive break below this level would confirm that the bearish structure remains in place. Additionally, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending downward from its midpoint, indicating weakening momentum and reinforcing the negative outlook.  

Our Stance: The near-term outlook remains cautious as the index continues to trade below key support levels, indicating persistent downward momentum. Weak technical indicators and heightened geopolitical risks may sustain volatility. However, stability near immediate support levels could provide short-term consolidation opportunities, while sustained downside pressure may reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.  

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