New Zealand Market Wrap – NZ Market Rebounds, But Downtrend Risks Still Persist

Index Update: On 2nd April, the broader NZ market ended higher amidst gains in the consumer staples sector. On the same day, the S&P/NZX 50 Index rose by 0.59% to close at 12,902.150, while the S&P/NZX 20 Index increased by 0.87% to 7,302.460. Additionally, the S&P/NZX 10 Index advanced by 0.65% to end at 12,522.340. Notably, the consumer staples sector witnessed notable buying momentum, with the S&P/NZX All Consumer Staples Index rising by 1.60%.  

Macro Update: The New Zealand dollar weakened to $0.571 amid ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty over conflict resolution. Rising oil prices linked to geopolitical risks may lift inflation and pressure household spending. The RBNZ signaled tolerance for short-term inflation but warned persistent energy-driven pressures could influence future rate decisions, while rate hike expectations have moderated.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Taiko Critical Minerals Limited (NZX: TCM) witnessed a rise of 8.11% to end at $0.200 per share. KMD Brands Limited (NZX: KMD) declined by 22.12%.   

Commodity Update: The dollar advanced against major currencies on Thursday as investors returned to safe-haven assets after President Donald Trump said U.S. military strikes on Iran would continue for another two to three weeks. Although Trump said the conflict could end soon, his remarks reduced hopes for an immediate ceasefire. Commodity markets moved sharply, with gold falling 2.17% to USD 4,708.45, silver declining 5.21% to USD 72.12, and copper slipping 1.13% to USD 12,303.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 4.83% to USD 106.03 per barrel.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

In the most recent session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index recovered a substantial portion of the prior day’s losses, advancing 76.29 points, or 0.59%. However, the index finished well below its intraday high, indicating that selling pressure remains evident. From a technical perspective, although the index has rebounded from its recent trough, the 14-period RSI is exhibiting signs of multiple bullish divergences relative to price, suggesting that the current rebound may persist in the near term. Nevertheless, the broader short-term structure remains negative. The index continues to form a pattern of lower highs and lower lows following its record peak, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend. A convincing breakout above the key resistance level at 13,022.30, marked by the February trough, would be necessary to challenge and potentially reverse this bearish outlook.  

Our Stance: The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by improving technical indicators and emerging bullish divergences. However, the broader trend continues to reflect underlying weakness, with resistance levels remaining critical for confirming sustained recovery. Until a decisive breakout occurs above key resistance, the near-term bias is expected to remain range-bound with downside risks.