Index Update: On 31st March, the broader NZ market ended higher amidst a rise in the health care sector. On the same day, the S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 1.28% to end at 12,912.110, and the S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 1.20% to close at 7,301.850. Also, the S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a rise of 1.63% to end at 12,563.330. Notably, the health care sector witnessed strong buying momentum, with the S&P/NZX All Health Care rising by 2.88%.  

Macro Update: The New Zealand dollar hovered near a four-month low around $0.572 amid concerns over prolonged energy shocks linked to Middle East tensions. Rising energy costs are expected to fuel inflation and weaken consumer spending. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled possible rate hikes if inflation pressures threaten longer-term expectations.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, TruScreen Group Limited (NZX: TRU) witnessed a rise of 6.35% to end at $0.017 per share. Accordant Group Limited (NZX: AGL) declined by 39.58%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday, reaching its highest level since May 2025 as investors continued to favour the currency amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. The stronger dollar was accompanied by gains in precious metals, with gold rising 0.79% to USD 4,593.50 and silver advancing 2.42% to USD 72.35, while copper edged 0.01% higher to USD 12,208.40. Brent crude, however, fell 1.09% to USD 106.24, capping a volatile month shaped by inflation and slower growth concerns. 

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

The S&P/NZX 50 Index posted a strong advance in the latest session, rising 163.20 points, or 1.28%, to close at 12,912.11. From a technical standpoint, the index has rebounded off its recent trough, while the 14-period RSI is showing signs of multiple bottom divergences versus price, an indication that the current bounce could extend over the next few sessions. That said, the broader structure remains bearish in the short term. The index continues to trace a sequence of lower highs and lower lows following its record peak, suggesting the downtrend is still intact. A decisive break above the key resistance at 13,022.30, defined by the February trough, would be required to challenge and potentially reverse this negative bias.  

Our Stance: The recent rebound in the S&P/NZX 50 Index suggests short-term recovery momentum supported by improving RSI signals. However, the prevailing lower high–lower low structure indicates that downside risks remain intact. Sustained strength above the 13,022 resistance level would be necessary to confirm a meaningful trend reversal and improve overall sentiment. 

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