Navigating New Zealand’s Market Landscape: Understanding the Trends

Index Update: On 26th March, the broader NZ market ended higher amidst some buying in the financials sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 0.37% to end at 12,976.990 and S&P/NZX 20 Index increased by 0.51% to close at 7,329.250. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index closed at 12,557.070, reflecting a rise of 0.60%. Notably, S&P/NZX All Financials rose by 1.80% to end at 1,664.510.   

Macro Update: As per FEU dated 12 March, even with shifts in US tariff policy, rising export prices from New Zealand pushed the merchandise terms of trade to a new peak in the December 2025 quarter. The export prices rose 5.3% during the quarter, with every major category experiencing price increases. Meat prices surged 9.6%, marking a 25% rise compared to a year earlier, and are expected to remain strongly supported throughout the coming year.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) witnessed a rise of 14.29% to end at $0.008 per share. On the other hand, New Talisman Gold Mines Limited (NZX: NTL) fell 6.25% to $0.015 per share.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held firm in early Asian trading on Thursday as investors awaited clarity on potential de-escalation in the U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions and adjusted expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Gold declined 0.86% to USD 4,546.40, silver dropped 1.34% to USD 71.67, and copper slipped 1.19% to USD 12,202.40. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 0.80% to USD 103.02 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group   

Although it rose strongly at the beginning of the session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index lost momentum toward the close, finishing at 12,977, up just 47.69 points, or 0.37%. This price action formed a candlestick with a long upper shadow, as the index failed to reclaim the significant resistance established by the February trough, suggesting that the benchmark remains in a downtrend characterized by lower highs and lower lows. To reverse the current trend, the index needs to break above the immediate resistance at 13,020.24 (the February trough), which would signal a potential short-term trend reversal. Until then, the current rebound should be viewed as a minor rally that may soon give way to a resumption of the prevailing downtrend.   

Our Stance: The US markets in early 2026 are marked by moderate economic growth, steady interest rates, and heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and energy price swings. Coming to NZ, the equities are supported by rising export prices but constrained by weak housing activity, cost-of-living pressures, and cautious monetary policy amid global energy and geopolitical risks. Moving forward, there are expectations of gradual economic recovery with continued export strength, and potential RBNZ rate adjustments if inflation persists.