Kiwi Markets Finish Marginally Lower

Index Update: On 16th March, the broader NZ market closed slightly lower amidst decline in the consumer discretionary sector, with S&P/NZX 50 Index falling by 0.17% to end at 13,164.580 and S&P/NZX 20 Index declining 0.12%. On the same day, S&P/NZX 10 Index witnessed a fall of 0.23% to close at 12,703.860. Notably, S&P/NZX All Consumer Discretionary index encountered a fall of 2.03% to close at 714.740.   

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about electronic card transactions (February 2026). For February 2026 month, the spending in the retail industries rose 1.4% ($95 Mn) and spending in the core retail industries rose 1.6% ($103 Mn) as compared to January 2026. By retail spending category, the consumables were up by $49 Mn (1.8%), hospitality was up by $35 Mn (2.4%), durables were up by $21 Mn (1.3%), etc.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Taiko Critical Minerals Limited (NZX: TCM) witnessed a rise of 13.95% to end at $0.245 per share. On the other hand, Manuka Resources Limited (NZX: MKR) fell by 13.13%.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a 10-month high on Monday as global markets turned cautious ahead of several key central bank meetings this week. Policymakers from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are scheduled to decide on interest rates amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, gold fell 1.10% to USD 5,006.60, silver dropped 2.27% to USD 79.49, copper eased 0.43%, while Brent crude rose 1.24% to USD 104.42.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index traded quietly in the most recent session, edging down just 22.76 points, or 0.17%, to finish at 13,164.59. From a technical perspective, recent price action continues to form a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, pointing to the potential development of a symmetrical triangle, a formation commonly interpreted as a consolidation pattern. Key levels remain the previous peak at 13,757.71, now acting as resistance, and the earlier trough at 13,022.30, which serves as support and marks the lower bound of the current range. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward its midpoint, indicating that momentum has moderated to a neutral stance. This suggests the benchmark could continue trading within a consolidation phase in the near term.  

Our Stance: As of now, the US markets are currently showing volatility and cautious sentiment, with major indices moving within a range as investors react to macroeconomic data and global developments. Key factors influencing performance include inflation concerns, shifts in interest rate expectations, and mixed signals from economic data such as jobs and growth indicators. Coming to the NZ markets, they are slightly lower overall, reflecting cautious sentiment. Overall, NZ equities remain relatively stable but are trading cautiously amid global geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.