Buying in Energy Sector Helps NZ Market

Index Update: On 24th February, the broader NZ market ended in green amidst buying in the energy sector. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 0.83% to end at 13,532.310 and S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 0.89% to close at 7,695.970. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index went up by 1.03% to close at 13,101.440. Notably, S&P/NZX All Energy witnessed a rise of 1.83% to end at 2,557.710.     

Macro Update: Stats NZ released data about retail trade survey for the December 2025 quarter. The total value of actual retail sales amounted to $34 Bn, reflecting a rise of 4.9% (or $1.6 Bn) as compared to the December 2024 quarter. The total value of actual stock as of 31 December 2025 stood at $9.2 Bn, implying a fall of 0.3% (or $31 Mn) as compared to 31 December 2024.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, PaySauce Limited (NZX: PYS) witnessed a rise of 4.08% to end at $0.255 per share. On the other hand, Minerals Exploration Limited (NZX: MEX) declined by 8.37% to $0.197 per share.  

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained subdued on Tuesday as Asian markets assessed renewed volatility surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff stance and its implications for global trade. Gold eased 0.32% to USD 5,208.50 after touching a three-week high, pressured by dollar strength despite geopolitical tensions. Silver gained 0.70% to USD 87.18, copper rose 2.37% to USD 13,151.10, while Brent crude slipped 0.10% to USD 71.40 amid U.S.-Iran talks uncertainty.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index extended its recovery in the latest session, rising 111.87 points, or 0.83%, to finish at 13,532.31. Although the benchmark moved above the resistance defined by the December 2024 high, it continues to trade below the upward trendline in place since April 2025. This technical setup points to the likelihood of a near-term consolidation phase. Should consolidation take hold, price action is expected to stay within the most recent swing range, with upside capped around 13,375.71 and support emerging near 13,020.24. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI has bounced from oversold levels and is now hovering close to neutral, reinforcing the consolidation view. The RSI momentum oscillator has also pushed above its midpoint, signalling a gradual shift in market sentiment from neutral toward positive.  

Our Stance: As of now, it seems that the US stocks are being impacted by the renewed tariff uncertainty, while the trade-policy shifts continue to weigh over the investors’ sentiments. After steep selloffs, there are expectations of cautious rebounds for the broader US equities. However, investors are required to consider investment opportunities after considering macro uncertainties. Talking about the NZ equities, there are signs of broad but cautious gains, supported by earnings and other factors. However, macro and consumer softness might influence sentiments moving forward.