Index Update: On 24th March, the broader NZ market witnessed a significant fall amidst global economic uncertainties. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a decline of 1.53% to end at 12,701.750 and S&P/NZX 20 Index fell by 1.64% to close at 7,155.990. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a fall of 1.79% to end at 12,194.310. Notably, strong selling was witnessed in the IT sector, with S&P/NZX All Information Technology falling by 3.76%.   

Macro Update: As per Stats NZ, for the year ended March 2025, GDP in the South Island rose 5.2%, compared with a 2.8% increase in the North Island. Auckland, representing 37.5% of national GDP, experienced a 2.1% growth in the year ended March 2025.     

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Blis Technologies Limited (NZX: BLT) witnessed a rise of 6.67% to end at $0.016 per share. On the other hand, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) declined by 25.00% to $0.006 per share.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened at the start of the week, extending losses after President Donald Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran’s power grid, easing fears of a prolonged conflict. Gold declined 1.10% to USD 4,390.60, silver fell 2.73% to USD 67.42, and copper slipped 1.11% to USD 12,049.70. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 4.18% to USD 99.92 as Iran denied ongoing talks with the U.S. despite deal optimism.  

 

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index closed at 12,701.75 following a volatile session, reflecting persistent selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the index remains vulnerable, with a decisive break below the key support zone likely to trigger renewed downside momentum. The next major support is seen near the previous trough around 12,500. On the upside, any rebound attempts are expected to face resistance near the 13,000 level. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioned in bearish territory, reinforcing the prevailing negative bias. Unless key support levels are reclaimed, the near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside, with an increased risk of further consolidation or corrective weakness.  

Our Stance: The U.S. markets remain resilient amid geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. 
Federal Reserve policy and interest rate expectations continue to drive investor sentiment. Macroeconomic indicators, including labor and inflation data, influence short-term market movements. Coming to the NZ markets, rising energy and fuel costs from global geopolitical tensions are weighing on returns. The Reserve Bank of NZ may adjust interest rates if inflation pressures persist. 

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