Index Update: On 31st December, the broader New Zealand market closed on a flat note, with the S&P/NZX 50 Index unchanged at 13,548.420, while the S&P/NZX 20 Index edged down 0.05% to 7,702.420. The S&P/NZX 10 Index also slipped 0.05%. Sector-wise, the S&P/NZX All Financials declined 1.60% to 2,640.510, while the S&P/NZX All Energy rose 2.10%.    

Macro Update: The New Zealand dollar eased to 0.577 after touching a three-month high, as markets reassessed the timing of potential RBNZ rate hikes. Stronger Q3 GDP data lifted tightening expectations, while a softer US dollar offered support. The kiwi remains on track for its best month since June and an annual gain above 3%.  

Market Movers: Among top gainers, KMD Brands Limited (NZX: KMD) witnessed a rise of 3.64%. On the other hand, Locate Technologies Limited (NZX: LOC) declined by 5.19%  

Commodity Update: Major currencies traded in narrow ranges on Wednesday amid thin year-end volumes, as investors awaited Federal Reserve meeting minutes for policy cues into 2026. Regional FX activity stayed muted. Gold fell 0.49% to USD 4,364.65, silver dropped 5.26% to USD 73.82, and copper eased 0.68% to USD 12,549.00. Brent crude slipped 0.20% to USD 61.23, with oil down over 10% in 2025 amid supply-demand imbalances.  

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index remained unchanged heading into the holiday period, continuing to move sideways within a consolidation range between its all-time high and the key support zone tied to the 2024 peak. From a technical standpoint, the short-term structure remains favourable, supported by a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows, with prices holding well above critical technical levels. As long as this core support zone is maintained, the broader uptrend that has been in place since October 2023 is expected to stay intact. Initial support is located near 13,270, and sustained trading above this level is necessary to preserve bullish momentum and set the stage for another test of the record high. In contrast, a decisive move below 13,270 would suggest a deeper corrective phase, potentially opening the way for a pullback toward the 13,000 region before the dominant uptrend re-emerges.  

Our Stance: The S&P/NZX 50 Index continues to trade sideways within a consolidation range while holding above key support near 13,270. The prevailing trend remains constructive as long as this level is maintained. A sustained break below support could trigger a deeper correction toward 13,000 before the broader uptrend resumes.   

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