Broader NZ Market Closes Lower

Index Update: On 25th February, the NZ market ended lower amidst broad-based decline, with S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessing a decline of 0.05% to end at 13,525.580 and S&P/NZX 20 Index falling by 0.29% to 7,673.820. Also, S&P/NZX 10 Index declined by 0.05% to close at 13,094.460. However, strong buying was witnessed in the energy sector and S&P/NZX All Energy rose by 3.24% to 2,640.510. Notably, S&P/NZX All Materials declined by 3.09% to 1,049.550.     

Macro Update: In the release dated 18 February 2026, RBNZ stated that the inflation is most likely to return in Committee’s 1% - 3% target band in the current quarter. There are expectations that inflation will fall to the 2% midpoint over the upcoming 12 months. This is expected because of spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth as well as core inflation in the target band.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) witnessed a rise of 9.09% to end at $0.012 per share. On the other hand, Steel & Tube Holdings Limited (NZX: STU) declined by 11.02%  

Commodity Update: The Japanese yen hovered near a two-week low after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations to the central bank governor regarding additional rate hikes. Meanwhile, strength in the Chinese yuan added pressure on the U.S. dollar. Gold rose 0.49% to USD 5,201.70, silver gained 2.44% to USD 89.63, and copper advanced 0.39% to USD 13,281.90. Brent crude climbed 0.64% to USD 71.22 amid persistent U.S.–Iran supply concerns.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 Index delivered a sideways session as it tested the rising trendline, edging down only 6.74 points, or 0.05%, to close at 13,525.57. The session also produced a Spinning Top candlestick, reflecting market indecision. While the index pushed above the resistance marked by the December 2024 peak, it remains below the upward trendline that has been intact since April 2025. This configuration suggests the market is likely entering a short-term consolidation phase. If consolidation develops, prices are expected to remain confined within the latest swing range, with resistance around 13,375.71 and initial support near 13,020.24. Additionally, the RSI oscillator has moved above its midpoint, indicating a tentative improvement in sentiment from neutral toward mildly positive.  

Our Stance: As of now, it seems that the US investors are monitoring tariff uncertainty and AI disruption fears. Beyond tech, there is market rotations happening, hinting at a broader market participation in 2026 gains. Coming to the NZ equities, the interest-rate expectations could shape investor positioning in NZ markets (impacting cost of capital and valuation multiples). NZ equities are experiencing selective strength, supported by domestic fundamentals.