Broader Market Ends Flat

Index Update: On 29th December, the broader NZ market ended flat, with S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessing a marginal decline of 0.02% to end at 13,525.990 and S&P/NZX 20 Index falling by 0.03% to 7,697.710. On the same day, S&P/NZX 10 Index encountered a decline of 0.20%. On the same day, S&P/NZX All Energy declined by 1.71% to 2,640.510, and S&P/NZX All Information Technology rose by 1.64%.  

Macro Update: As per FEU dated December 19, in the aftermath of global turmoil as well as volatility in financial market in the quarter ended June, the businesses have resumed investment plans mainly in physical assets. The investment in transport equipment witnessed a strong rebound in the quarter because of road vehicles that rose 6.9% in the quarter, after the 7.8% rise in June. 

Market Movers: Among top gainers, Manuka Resources Limited (NZX: MKR) witnessed an increase of 13.33% to end at $0.102 per share. On the other hand, Bremworth Limited (NZX: BRW) declined by 4.76%.  

Commodity Update: The yen recovered modestly on Monday after last week’s sharp decline, as markets reassessed the timing of further BoJ rate hikes and potential intervention risks amid thin year-end trading. In commodities, gold slipped 0.34% to USD 4,537.20, silver rose 1.30% to USD 78.203, and copper surged 6.32% to USD 12,883.00. Brent crude climbed 0.90% to USD 60.78, supported by renewed Middle East supply concerns and elevated geopolitical risk premiums, although uncertainty around Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations continues to cap upside momentum. 

Source: Trading View, Analysis: Kalkine Group 

In the most recent trading session, the S&P/NZX 50 Index closed near its opening level, forming a Doji candlestick and reinforcing the ongoing consolidation between its record high and the key support zone linked to the 2024 peak. Technically, the short-term structure remains constructive, underpinned by a disciplined pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with prices continuing to trade comfortably above important technical levels. Provided this primary support area holds, the broader uptrend that began in October 2023 is expected to remain intact. Near-term support is seen around 13,270, and sustained trading above this level is required to maintain bullish momentum and set the stage for another test of the all-time high. Conversely, a decisive break below 13,270 would signal a deeper corrective phase, potentially exposing the index to a pullback toward the 13,000 area before the dominant uptrend resumes. 

Our Stance: It seems that the broader US and global markets are being influenced by the expectations of rate cut by the US Fed in March 2026. Amidst the final sessions of 2025, the market experts believe that there remains optimism in the broader market. Coming to NZ, the annual current account deficit eased to 3.5% of GDP in the quarter ended September, reflecting a fall from 3.7% of GDP in the June quarter, revealed Fortnightly Economic Update (dated December 19).