Company Overview: Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) is an Australian-based corporation engaged in the exploration, development, mining and sale of gold and the froth flotation product, gold-copper concentrate. The stock was delisted from ASX with effect from 27 October 2023 as a result of the scheme of arrangement whereby the company was acquired by Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM).  Subject to the Scheme becoming effective, eligible Newcrest shareholders received 0.400 Newmont securities for each Newcrest share held on the Scheme Record Date. Newcrest shareholders on the Australian share register will receive Newmont CHESS depositary interests (Newmont CDIs). Newmont Corporation CDIs (ASX: NEM) started trading on ASX with effect from 27 October 2023. This Report covers the Price Action, Technical Indicators Analysis along with the Support Levels, Resistance Levels, and Recommendations on this stock.

 Recent Update:

On 31 October 2023, the company said that UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate ceased to be a substantial holder in the company with effect from 27 October 2023 and Vanguard Group ceased to be a substantial holder in the company with effect from 25 October 2023.

 Financials & Trading update

• For the September quarter of 2023, the company reported gold production of 454,312oz, 18% lower than 556,187oz produced in the June quarter of 2023. The production decline was because of planned maintenance shutdowns during the quarter, consistent with prior years. Gold production was also impacted by lower gold head grade at Cadia, Telfer, Brucejack and Red Chris, partly offset by higher gold head grade at Lihir. Newcrest’s AISC of $1,397/oz2,3 for the quarter was 18% higher than the prior period.
• For the full year ended 30 June 2023, NCM reported a revenue of USD 4,508mn, up 7% year-on-year vs. USD 4,207mn reported in FY22. However, its net profit declined by 11% annually to USD 778mn vs USD 872mn in pcp. The decline in net profit was because of a lower realised copper price, higher depreciation, higher operating costs (including the impact of inflationary pressures which were in line with expectations), a decrease in Newcrest’s share of profits from its associates and an increase in finance costs with a higher level of debt and higher interest rates in the current period.

 FY24 Guidance

The company has guided to produce 2000-2,300koz of gold at an AISC of AUD 2,200-2,600/oz and 120-140kt of copper in FY24.

NCM’s Technical Analysis:

While experiencing a short-term downtrend, NCM's stock price is fluctuating between a falling parallel channel on the daily chart, signalling a positive bias. Currently, prices are testing the lower boundary of the channel, anticipating a potential rally. Additionally, the RSI (14-period) is forming a bottom divergence near the oversold region, providing further support for the mentioned recommendation. Prices are trading above below the 21-period SMA, which may potentially function as a dynamic resistance level for the stock; in contrast, the channel’s lower boundary might act as a dynamic support level. Important support for the stock is positioned at AUD 21.88, while key resistance is placed at AUD 25.60.

Daily Technical Chart – NCM

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest, taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) was last covered in a report dated '08 December 2022'.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an Indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: Investment decision should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report.

Note 3: Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is October 26, 2023. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Technical Indicators Defined:

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trends. If the prices are trading above the 21-period, prices are currently in a bullish trend (Vice – Versa).

The Blue colour line reflects the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trends. If the prices are trading above the 50-period, prices are currently in a bullish trend (Vice – Versa).

The Orange/ Yellow colour line represents the Trendline.

The Purple colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period), which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status, while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

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