This report is an updated version of the report published on 17 June 2025 at 11:07 AM AEST. 

Tourism Holdings Limited (ASX: THL)  

Tourism Holdings Limited (ASX: THL) is a global tourism company that operates through several segments, including New Zealand Rentals & Sales, Action Manufacturing, Tourism, Australia Rentals, Sales & Manufacturing, United States Rentals & Sales, Canadian Rentals & Sales, and UK/Ireland Rentals & Sales. The company is involved in the manufacturing, rental, and sale of recreational vehicles (RVs), such as motorhomes, campervans, and caravans, as well as other tourism-related activities.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 2.13 

• Surpassed Resistance: THL’s share price surpassed its R2 level, recommended on 14 May 2025. Therefore, THL can face correction at the current levels.

• Technical Standpoint: A 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 86.44 indicates that THL is currently trading around the overbought condition. This suggests the stock has experienced strong recent buying momentum, and a potential price pullback or consolidation could be imminent as traders may start booking profits or waiting for a correction before entering new positions.

• FY25 Trading Update: Recent geopolitical tensions and tariff changes have weakened the global business climate, sharply reducing consumer confidence. This has led to a decline in vehicle sales volumes and margins worldwide. Additionally, inbound travel to the USA has dropped significantly, with THL seeing a marked slowdown in new bookings and increased cancellations for the USA rental high season.
• Emerging Risks: The transportation industry is heavily regulated, with stringent environmental standards and emission controls in place. Any shifts in legislation, the imposition of new government taxes, or more rigorous environmental regulations could lead to increased operational costs or even impose limitations on business activities, adding further complexity to the sector's future.

THL Daily Chart

 Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight discount to its peers, considering  continued headwinds in the RV sales market, challenging global environment, geopolitical tensions and tariff changes, etc. For valuation, a few peers like Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ), Lindsay Australia Ltd (ASX: LAU), Camplify Holdings Ltd (ASX: CHL), and others have been considered.

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R2 level, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 2.13 (as of 17 June 2025, at 10:35 AM AEST). 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 17 June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.   

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.