Myer Holdings Limited (ASX: MYR) 

Myer Holdings Limited (ASX: MYR) is an ASX listed department store retailer, with a history dating back to 1900. Headquartered in Docklands, Victoria, Myer operates approximately 56 department stores across Australia.

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 0.75 

• Surpassed Resistance: MYR is trading around the ‘Resistance 2’ level recommended on 1 April 2025. Therefore, MYR can face resistance at the current levels.
• Sales Decline: Despite a modest 1.9% year-on-year sales increase in the second half of FY2025, Myer's Apparel Brands segment posted a revenue decline of 3.9% YoY, with comparable sales down 3.7% and online sales down 3.5% in that segment. The company faced significant margin pressure due to increased promotional activity, higher costs driven by wages and inflationary factors, and unfavorable foreign exchange movements.
• Decline in Operating Profit: Operating Gross Profit (OGP) decreased by 1.4% to $656 million in the first half of FY2025, with the margin rate dropping by 53 basis points to 35.8%. This was attributed to a sales mix shift toward concessions, intensified promotions, and additional distribution costs caused by complications at the new National Distribution Centre.
• Profit Impact: Underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) fell 18.5% to AU$42.4 million in H1 FY25, with statutory NPAT down to AU$30.4 million after accounting for AU$14.1 million in implementation and strategic review costs related to the Apparel Brands acquisition.

Daily Price Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Jun'26E) (Illustrative)

MYR is expected to trade at a slight discount to its peers considering the 3.7% and 3.5% decline in comparable sales and online sales in H2 FY25, respectively. For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1), Autosports Group Ltd (ASX: ASG), and Reject Shop Ltd (ASX: TRS).

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 0.75, as of 23 May 2025, at 2:42 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 23 May 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 7 May act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 7 May act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.