Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Ltd (RBD) is a corporate franchisee that specialises in managing multi-site branded food retail chains.

Recommendation Rationale – Sell at NZD 4.89

• RBD received a takeover notice from Finaccess Restauración, S.L., providing notice of Finaccess’ intention to make a full takeover for the acquisition of all the ordinary shares in RBD that it does not already own. As per the release, the proposed offer price has been set at NZ$5.05 per share, payable in cash. If Finaccess proceeds for a takeover offer, it needs to do this within the time span beginning 10 working days and ending 20 working days after 30^th
• The release also stated that Finaccess is not legally obliged to make an offer. If it doesn’t, takeover notice will lapse. It has been informed that shareholders should not take action in respect of Finaccess takeover proposal right now.
• At the time of H1 FY 2025 results, the company stated that margin recovery was impacted by higher labour, energy and rental costs, increased aggregator charges as well as slower-than-expected macroeconomic improvement.

RBD’s Daily Price Chart

RBD Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Fundamental Valuation

Considering the increasing volatility over global equity market, inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, etc. the company’s stock might trade at slight discount. For the valuation, peers such as Warehouse Group Ltd (NZX: WHS), Michael Hill International Ltd (NZX: MHJ), etc. were considered.

Given its current trading levels, and risks associated, it is prudent to book profit at the current levels.

Hence, a ‘Sell’ rating has been provided on the stock at the closing price of NZD 4.89 per share, up by 65.2% as on 30 September 2025.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 30 September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.