This report is an updated version of the report published on 18 July 2025 at 11:32 AM AEST.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Mineral Resources Ltd is engaged in mining, with a focus on lithium and iron ore. The company owns and operates its own mining projects, particularly in Western Australia.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 28.94

• Technical Momentum Losing Steam: MIN’s share price has surpassed the R2 level recommended on 28 April 2025, capitalizing on a 58.75% gain since the previous recommendation. Also, the momentum oscillatory (14-day RSI is around 71.49 level), indicating overbought territory. This suggests the recent price recovery may be overextended, increasing the likelihood of near-term consolidation or a technical pullback.
• Escalating Net Debt Burden: Net debt rose to AUD 5.4 billion as of 31 March 2025, driven by AUD 360 million in capex outflows and continued working capital strain. Although liquidity exceeds AUD 1.25 billion, the elevated leverage profile raises refinancing and balance sheet risk heading into FY26.
• Financial Decline: During H1 FY25, underlying EBITDA and NPAT declined by 55% and 200% YoY, respectively. It was primarily due to pronounced weakness in both iron ore and lithium prices.
• Production and Volume Pressures: During Q3 FY25, Mining Services’ production dropped by 6 million tonnes quarter-on-quarter mainly due to weaker volumes at the Yilgarn Hub and Bald Hill operations, suggesting not just price pressure, but demand and operational headwinds as well.

MIN Daily Chart

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Jun'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock can trade at a slight premium compared to its peers considering the world-class asset portfolio (possession of Tier 1 hard rock lithium and major iron ore assets), active role in critical minerals, recent operational improvements, and integrated business model.

For conducting the valuation, the following peer companies have been considered: Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU), 29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M), and Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI).

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 28.94, as of 18 July 2025 at 11:40 AM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 18 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.