This report is an updated version of the report published on 26 August 2025 at 11:09 AM AEST.

Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA)

INA is a property development company. It owns, operates, and develops a portfolio of lifestyle and holiday communities across key urban and coastal markets. It operates in five segments: Lifestyle Development; Lifestyle Rental; Ingenia Gardens; Ingenia Holidays; and Fuel, Food & Beverage Services.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 6.21

• Trading Around Resistance: The stock has crossed its first resistance (R1) of AUD 5.755 and is hovering near its R2 of AUD 6.236. However, its 14-day RSI is showing a reading of ~87.93; hence, the stock may face some consolidation before scaling further upside.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis - key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E, Price/Cash Flow, Price/Book Value) are higher than median of the Real Estate sector.
• Margin Compression (Ingenia Lifestyle Rental): For the year ended 30 June 2025, EBIT margin in Ingenia Lifestyle Rental declined to 49.6% from 52.3% in FY24, reflecting partially operational communities, legacy VIC DMF agreements, and capped rent increases in QLD.
• Leverage Risk: As of 30 June 2025, non-current borrowings at group level rose to AUD 874.4 million from AUD 749.6 million in FY24, resulting in higher borrowing costs and lifting total non-current liabilities to AUD 1.01 billion.

INA Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Book Value Approach (FY Jun'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the YoY increase in revenue and NPAT in FY25, trading updates and earnings guidance for FY26, cost reduction efforts and growing residential rents.

For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: GPT Group (ASX: GPT), Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SPG), Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) and others.

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 6.21, as of 26 August 2025 at 10:14 AM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 26 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.