This report is an updated version of the report published on 23 June 2025 at 11:05 AM AEST. 

The GPT Group (ASX: GPT) 

The GPT Group (ASX: GPT) is an Australia-based vertically integrated diversified property company that owns and manages a portfolio of Australian office, logistics and retail assets.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 5.10

• Trading Near Resistance Level: GPT’s share price surpassed its R1 level, recommended on 25 May 2025. Therefore, GPT can face correction at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis, the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.0x vs industry (Real Estate) average of 14.3x.
• Losses in FY24: For the full year, the company reported a statutory loss after tax of AUD 200.7 million, primarily driven by an AUD 770.7 million decline in the valuation of investment properties. The company’s loss-making position presents a risk, as continued financial losses may strain resources, limit growth opportunities, and require additional funding or capital raising to sustain operations.
• Emerging Risks: The company’s future financial performance may be impacted by factors such as increasing inflation and elevated interest rates. Furthermore, there are risks associated with potential cybersecurity breaches and failures in safeguarding sensitive information.

GPT Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY Dec'25E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the company’s diversified investment portfolio, focus on platform growth, partnership synergies, conservative capital profile, product development, and other factors. Peers include Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), Dexus (ASX: DXS), Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX), and others.

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R1 level, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 5.10 (as of 23 June 2025, at 10:10 AM AEST). 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 23 June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.