This report is an updated version of the report published on 14 August 2025 at 1:55 PM AEST.

Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI)

Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) is an ASX-listed specialty investment management firm, which offers a variety of investment alternatives, including public and unlisted real estate funds, as well as tax-efficient investment bonds.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 2.00

• Trading Near Resistance Level: CNI's share price has surpassed its R1 level and is approaching its R2 level, as recommended on 24 June 2025. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis - key valuation multiples (EV/Sales, and EV/EBITDA) are higher than Industry median of Financials.
• Financial Performance: The company’s Assets Under Management (AUM) declined by 2.84% year-on-year in the first half of FY25. Statutory NPAT fell from AUD 45.2 million in 1HFY24 to AUD 14.8 million in 1HFY25, primarily due to lower performance and acquisition fees compared to the previous period.
• Emerging Risks: CNI operates within a highly regulated environment, where changes in tax legislation, financial regulations, or any compliance issues could affect its operations and investor confidence. During challenging market conditions, securing new capital for unlisted funds or maintaining liquidity in listed vehicles may prove difficult, potentially limiting growth and reducing operational flexibility.

CNI Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: P/E Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the company’s diversified investment portfolio, focus on platform growth, partnership synergies, conservative capital profile, product development, and other factors. Peers include Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP), Scentre Group (ASX: SCG), and HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC).

Considering that the stock is approaching its R2 level, macroeconomic uncertainty, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 2.00, at 1:10 PM AEST, as of 14 August 2025. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 14 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.   

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.