Company Overview: Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) is a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ecuador, Fiji and Ghana. Its operations include Brucejack, Red Chris, Penasquito, Merian, Cerro Negro, Yanacocha, Boddington, Tanami, Cadia, Lihir, Ahafo, and NGM.

As per our previous US Inflation Report published on ‘NEM’ on 28^th March 2025, Kalkine provided a ‘Buy’ stance on the stock at USD 48.39, based on “Newmont Corporation’s (NEM) robust fundamentals, significant production of 6.8 million gold ounces in 2024, a 106% surge in Adjusted EBITDA to USD8.7 billion, strong operational momentum with a record USD2.9 billion in Free Cash Flow, financial resilience from USD7.7 billion in total liquidity, strategic portfolio optimization through divestitures expected to yield up to USD4.3 billion, and a current valuation reflecting stability amidst a favourable gold price environment”, giving a return of 14.23%, attaining resistance 1 and moving towards resistance 2.

Current Macro and company specific rationales:

• Trade Tensions and Their Effect on NEM: The escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China, underscored by China’s 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, creates substantial hurdles for NEM’s global sourcing and distribution operations. These tariffs drive up procurement expenses and introduce inefficiencies in cross-border logistics, potentially narrowing NEM’s margins and reducing international appetite for its products. As a company intertwined with global trade, NEM faces heightened risks in terms of its cost structure and market reach.
• S. Recession Fears Weighing on NEM: Lingering concerns about a potential U.S. recession are dampening consumer confidence, a critical issue for NEM as a business reliant on consumer markets. With discretionary spending likely to decline amid economic uncertainty, NEM could see weakened demand and an accumulation of unsold inventory. This exposure threatens to undermine its revenue growth and shake investor confidence in its short-term outlook.
• NEM’s Exposure to Raw Material Volatility: NEM faces unique pressures from fluctuations in raw material prices, a key input for its production processes. Recent supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability have intensified cost variability, challenging NEM’s ability to maintain stable margins. Without effective hedging strategies or diversified suppliers, the company risks passing higher costs onto customers or absorbing losses, both of which could erode its competitive edge.
• Regulatory Risks in NEM’s Key Markets: Operating in heavily regulated sectors, NEM is increasingly vulnerable to shifting compliance requirements across its primary markets. New environmental, safety, or labor regulations could necessitate costly operational adjustments or fines for non-compliance, straining its financial resources. These regulatory headwinds, unique to NEM’s industry footprint, add complexity to its growth strategy and long-term planning.

Noted below are the details of support and resistance levels provided in our previous report:

Relative Valuation (Price/Earnings based relative valuation):

NEM’s Daily Chart

Considering the current trading levels, volatile macro environment, lower intrinsic value as per P/E relative valuation, tariffs increased both by US and China, and risks associated, a ‘Sell’ rating is assigned to the “NEM” at the current market price of USD 55.24, as of April 11, 2025, at 09:40 am PDT. 

Note: This report may be updated with details around fundamental and technical analysis, price/ chart in due course, as appropriate

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is April 11, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’