The Mosaic Company 

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a major producer of key crop nutrients, including phosphate and potash

Recommendation Rationale – Sell at USD 28.81

• In the release dated 21^st October 2024, MOS highlighted that it expects the hurricane related production impacts to be in the range of 200-250 thousand tonnes in Q4.
• The company’s operating results are highly dependent upon and fluctuate based upon business, economic and other conditions and governmental policies affecting the agricultural industry. Some of the factors include weather and field conditions, quantities of crop nutrients imported and exported, governmental policies, including farm and biofuel policies, etc.
• Also, economic and market conditions, such as inflation, supply chain challenges, high interest rates and foreign exchange volatility, might impact its business.

MOS’ Daily Price Chart

MOS’ Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Fundamental Valuation

MOS is exposed to the risks related to higher inflation, slowdown in the industry, global economic downturn, etc. Therefore, MOS is expected to trade at slight discount considering the risks associated. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: Yara International ASA and Sinofert Holdings Ltd

Given its current trading levels, and risks associated, it is prudent to book profit at the current levels. 

Considering the declining sequential profit margins, rising debt employment and increasing volatility over global equity market an ‘Sell’ rating is assigned to the ‘MOS’ at the current market price of USD 28.81 as of Nov 06,2024 at 06:48 AM PDT.   

The Mosaic Company is part of Kalkine’s Global Agriculture Report. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. 

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 6 November 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. 

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.