MINISO Group Holding Ltd

MINISO Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: MNSO) serves as an investment holding entity focused on the design, retail, and wholesale of lifestyle goods and toys, operating through its key brands, MINISO and TOP TOY.

Key Business Updates

• Strong Revenue Momentum: During the September Quarter of 2025, MINISO delivered robust revenue growth, reporting a 28.2% year-on-year increase to RMB 5,796.6 million. This performance exceeded the upper end of management’s guidance range of 25%–28% and was supported by broad-based improvement across all operating segments. Both the MINISO and TOP TOY brands maintained strong commercial traction, with the former benefiting from solid domestic and overseas contributions, and the latter achieving a record quarterly expansion. Same-store GMV for the Group advanced to a mid-single-digit level, reflecting sustained consumer engagement across markets.
• Resilient Profitability and Margin Trends: The Group recorded gross profit of RMB 2,590.1 million, an increase of 27.6% year-on-year, translating into a gross margin of 44.7%, marginally lower than the 44.9% in the prior year. Adjusted operating profit rose 14.8% year-on-year to RMB 1,022.3 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 17.6%. Although margins narrowed compared to last year, the pace of contraction continued to sequentially improve from earlier quarters, signalling effective cost management amid ongoing investments in store expansion and brand development.
• Significant Growth Across Key Geographies: Mainland China remained a cornerstone of the company’s performance, generating RMB 3,390 million in revenue, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 25.0%. Same-store GMV rose at a high-single-digit pace, supported by strong foot traffic recovery and enhanced store productivity. Overseas markets contributed RMB 2,407 million, reflecting a 32.9% year-on-year increase. Growth in international regions was driven by accelerating same-store momentum, particularly in North America and Europe, and continued expansion of the directly operated store network.
• Rapid Expansion of the Global Store Network: MINISO achieved a major operational milestone by surpassing 8,000 stores globally as of September 30, 2025. Total store count reached 8,138, representing a net addition of 718 stores versus the prior year. The Group operated 7,831 MINISO stores worldwide, including 4,407 in mainland China and 3,424 across overseas markets. The TOP TOY brand also continued its scale-up trajectory, reaching 307 stores globally, supported by growing acceptance of proprietary IPs and increased demand for pop-culture toys across Asia and new international markets.
• Exceptional Performance of TOP TOY: The TOP TOY brand delivered another breakthrough quarter, with revenue surging 111.4% year-on-year to RMB 574.5 million. Its same-store growth reached the mid-single-digit level, supported by strong consumer response to new IP-driven product lines, including the globally popular Nommi series. The brand expanded its footprint to 307 stores, including its first store in Tokyo’s Ikebukuro district, further cementing its positioning as a high-growth vertical within MINISO’s multi-brand ecosystem.
• Solid Cash Flow and Strong Financial Position: The Group continued to demonstrate robust cash-generation capability, posting RMB 1,299.6 million in net cash from operating activities during the quarter, resulting in an operating cash flow to adjusted net profit ratio of 1.7 times. As of September 30, 2025, total cash position reached RMB 7,766.2 million, up from RMB 6,698.1 million at year-end 2024. These results reflected efficient working-capital management and strong operating leverage, reinforcing the Group’s ability to fund future investments and maintain financial resilience.  

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

MINISO’s chart shows a controlled short-term downtrend, with the price trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages and a recent bearish crossover confirming weakening momentum. RSI near 18 signals soft oversold conditions, while steady volume indicates gradual selling rather than capitulation. Overall, bears retain the advantage, but the decline remains measured, with a reversal requiring the stock to regain key moving averages. 

MINISO delivered a strong and broadly positive performance in the September Quarter of 2025, highlighted by a 28.2% surge in revenue, continued mid-single-digit same-store sales growth, and expanding global scale surpassing 8,000 stores. Both mainland China and overseas markets contributed meaningfully, while the high-growth TOP TOY brand more than doubled revenue with rising global traction. Despite ongoing investments, profitability remained resilient with 14.8% growth in adjusted operating profit and robust cash generation, reinforcing the company’s financial strength and its ability to sustain high-quality, IP-driven growth.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given MINISO Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: MNSO) at the closing market price of USD 19.22 as of Nov 25,2025. 

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is November 25,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.